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Top stories

Climate Change Fuels Europe’s Worst Wildfire Season on Record

Natural Disasters

Climate Change Fuels Europe’s Worst Wildfire Season on Record

Authors

13

3 months ago

Ancient DNA Study Pinpoints Horse Genes That Enabled Riding

Ancient DNA Study Pinpoints Horse Genes That Enabled Riding

Authors

5

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Science

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

12.63%chance

802467730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

48915

11661

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

183986

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

Before 2026

66

7

7

5

5

3

Will Michael Nielsen agree by 2030 that private-only funding for science significantly improves the status quo?

Feb 5, 11:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.1%chance

233895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1247

934

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Feb 19, 9:04 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

11.78%chance

163744

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2737

365

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

52.36%chance

22432

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10483

9539

Will an Indian science fiction film make a billion dollars at the global box office this decade?

Aug 1, 4:44 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

15.97%chance

291313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

848

Richard Yang sells out to computer science at MIT by end of April 2026?

May 10, 2:17 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

53.13%chance

151307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1477

955

Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?

May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM

22.82%chance

111221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

547

Will mainstream science be using primarily Bayesian analysis by 2035?

Aug 14, 11:50 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.67%chance

251042

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

974

Will the Ontario Science Centre reopen at its 2024 location in the next 5 years?

Aug 3, 2:19 PMAug 11, 3:59 AM

19.68%chance

41025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2020

495

Will a major science publication claim that humans have "cheated death" by 2040?

Mar 7, 3:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15%chance

16742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1243

893

Will science make human beings biologically immortal in future?

Nov 24, 10:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.73%chance

18429

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1226

948

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