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Prediction markets for Scientist

Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.78%chance

5985442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

40359

2478

Will Navier-Stokes be solved with the help of Google or Alphabet scientists by the end of 2027?

Sep 24, 1:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.19%chance

13072470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14287

10521

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

"Shangri-La diet" theory becomes widely accepted by scientists before 2030.

Nov 30, 9:36 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

8.78%chance

193924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

945

Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor?

Feb 17, 4:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

553016

OptionProbability

Diet and obesity

Plastics

Sunlight and circadian rhythm

Pesticides

Porn

45

39

11

3

2

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.94%chance

321986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

610

Can Korean scientists get Nobel prize by 2035 ?

Aug 2, 3:37 AMOct 9, 11:32 PM

64.34%chance

171003

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1258

796

Will scientists drill into the mantle by 2031?

Dec 10, 10:08 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

35.75%chance

28793

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

859

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

778

Will Nick Szabo (computer scientist and cryptographer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 10, 12:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.84%chance

8504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

559

113

Will some scientist genetically engineer a virus that is virulent to anyone who isn't Han Chinese by 2038?

Jun 22, 8:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.52%chance

9187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

60

Will any scientist or Nobel laureate have their brain formalin-fixed after death by EOY 2030?

Feb 1, 1:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.42%chance

585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

79

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