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Prediction markets for Scientist

Will Navier-Stokes be solved with the help of Google or Alphabet scientists by the end of 2027?

Sep 24, 1:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.8%chance

11862645

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11184

10881

Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.85%chance

5360564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

49990

2000

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

"Shangri-La diet" theory becomes widely accepted by scientists before 2030.

Nov 30, 9:36 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

8.78%chance

193924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

945

Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor?

Feb 17, 4:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

552832

OptionProbability

Diet and obesity

Plastics

Sunlight and circadian rhythm

Porn

Pesticides

45

39

9

4

3

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Can Korean scientists get Nobel prize by 2035 ?

Aug 2, 3:37 AMOct 9, 11:32 PM

66.21%chance

17947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1315

766

Will scientists confirm the reversal of ageing in humans through genetic editing or other technologies by the end 2045?

Apr 26, 8:08 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

44.18%chance

14913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

298

253

Will scientists drill into the mantle by 2031?

Dec 10, 10:08 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

35.75%chance

28793

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

859

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

778

By end of 2028, will the median data scientist’s salary be >$100,000?

Apr 5, 5:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.21%chance

490

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

75

Will scientists find >4.5 billion year old zircons?

Dec 9, 11:23 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

32.04%chance

448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

78

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