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Prediction markets for Scientist

Will Navier-Stokes be solved with the help of Google or Alphabet scientists by the end of 2027?

Sep 24, 1:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

11559396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13166

10640

Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.41%chance

4639822

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29334

3409

Will Yann LeCun remain chief AI scientist at Meta until 2026?

Mar 11, 12:19 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

63.14%chance

8118359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

778

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.29%chance

216832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3327

301

Will scientists confirm a 5th force of nature before 2026?

Aug 11, 4:26 AMJan 3, 5:59 AM

4.26%chance

314447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2482

867

"Shangri-La diet" theory becomes widely accepted by scientists before 2030.

Nov 30, 9:36 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

8.78%chance

193924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

945

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will "Danger, AI Scientist, Danger" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 16, 5:25 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.99%chance

3950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1944

897

Can Korean scientists get Nobel prize by 2035 ?

Aug 2, 3:37 AMOct 9, 11:32 PM

66.21%chance

17947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1315

766

Will scientists confirm the reversal of ageing in humans through genetic editing or other technologies by the end 2045?

Apr 26, 8:08 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

44.18%chance

14913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

298

253

Will scientists drill into the mantle by 2031?

Dec 10, 10:08 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

35.75%chance

28793

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

859

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

778

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