Scots News

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.25%chance

183266085

OptionVotes

YES

17639

7122

Will Senator Scott Wiener be employed by an AI company like Anthropic within the next 12 months?

Aug 17, 11:50 PMAug 25, 6:59 AM

2%chance

52192987

OptionVotes

YES

7000

143

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.47%chance

335126206

OptionVotes

YES

6451

596

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.99%chance

10741945

OptionVotes

YES

11036

9044

If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Mar 10, 12:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.58%chance

11730224

OptionVotes

YES

10621

5761

Will SCOTUS rule that 14A doesn't grant citizenship to US-born children of undocumented immigrant parents by 2030?

Jan 28, 11:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.98%chance

2016016

OptionVotes

YES

17376

6671

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80%chance

10712835

OptionVotes

YES

3243

555

Will SCOTUS strike down the preemptive pardons if it considers the case?

Jan 20, 2:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

17.68%chance

3812285

OptionVotes

YES

19786

5802

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

769927

OptionProbability

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM

76.77%chance

381544

OptionVotes

YES

2360

1812

Will Scotland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:56 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

25%chance

17619

OptionVotes

YES

1281

876

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.75%chance

11423

OptionVotes

YES

1028

975

Scots News

Prediction markets for Scots

Prediction markets for Scots

Prediction markets for Scots

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Will Senator Scott Wiener be employed by an AI company like Anthropic within the next 12 months?

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Will SCOTUS rule that 14A doesn't grant citizenship to US-born children of undocumented immigrant parents by 2030?

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Will SCOTUS strike down the preemptive pardons if it considers the case?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Will Scotland leave the UK by 2040?

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

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