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Prediction markets for SCR

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Aug 28, 9:22 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

70.9%chance

5513722

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1561

641

Will AI be able to rewrite the Linux Kernel from scratch in Rust, mostly autonomously, by EOY 2030?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

67.58%chance

558521

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1444

693

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97980

OptionProbability

Very Positive

Mixed

Mostly Positive

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

26

23

21

14

9

5

2

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.15%chance

1147307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1903

957

Which movies will have between $50M and $100M in the 2026 US opening weekend (FSS)?

Feb 3, 10:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

265095

OptionProbability

The Devil Wears Prada 2

The Mandalorian and Grogu

Michael

Scary Movie 6

Scream 7

Project Hail Mary

Backrooms

Moana (live action)

Minions & Monsters (Minions 3)

Jumanji Open Would

Dune: Messiah

Scr

Mort

The Odyssey

Supergirl

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

Verity

The Social Reckoning

Resident Evil

Insidious: The Bleeding World

Hexed

The Cat in the Hat

Focker-in-Law

Street Fighter

Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol

Werwulf

Dog Stars

Digger

The Great Beyond

The End of Oak Street

Forgotten Island

Godzilla Minus Zero

GOAT

Disclosure Day

Mortal Kombat II

Wuthering Heights

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Masters of the Universe

Lee Cronin's The Mummy

Animal Friends

Remain

Hoppers

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

77

76

73

68

50

50

41

41

41

26

26

24

24

21

20

18

17

17

17

17

15

15

13

13

9

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

Aug 17, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.34%chance

634617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1837

515

SCREEN Act passes during 119th Congress?

Aug 4, 6:19 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM

42.02%chance

114431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

851

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

Mar 11, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.88%chance

423569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2640

1567

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script?

Aug 28, 9:21 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

46.32%chance

271662

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

929

By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time, given a video of the screen.

Jan 5, 11:05 AMJan 12, 6:29 PM

68.93%chance

291600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

721

Will the triple lock pension be scrapped before the next General Election?

Jan 18, 4:47 PMJul 4, 9:59 PM

47.91%chance

13977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

959

Will "High-level actions don’t screen off intent" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 12, 10:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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