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Prediction markets for SCRA

Will AI be able to rewrite the Linux Kernel from scratch in Rust, mostly autonomously, by EOY 2030?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

79.55%chance

599086

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1972

507

By 2028, AI can build a website from scratch without more input from humans?

Jan 5, 11:29 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM

88.45%chance

161968

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1925

805

Will quantum computing lead to a scramble to quickly update encryption algorithms?

Jan 30, 10:23 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.74%chance

301129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

798

Will the triple lock pension be scrapped before the next General Election?

Jan 18, 4:47 PMJul 4, 9:59 PM

47.91%chance

13977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

959

Will over 100,000 people live in the "City Built From Scratch" by "The Silicon Valley Elite" in Solano County in 2030?

Aug 25, 10:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.27%chance

18917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1641

919

What words will be added to the North American scrabble dictionary before 2035?

Aug 26, 7:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10472

OptionProbability

RIZZ

RATIOED

FOOLER

TADA

BOOL

COPIUM

ENBY

SHINOBI

ENTRAIL

BRANE

ZE

JA

VORPAL

69

67

54

54

50

50

50

50

50

46

43

38

36

Will the OpenAI Charter be scrapped or amended by 2027?

Sep 14, 6:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.2%chance

496

OptionVotes

NO

YES

174

57

Which letter will get a two letter word in Scrabble first, C or V? (North American Word List)

Sep 22, 7:03 AMSep 30, 6:59 AM

578

OptionProbability

C

V

Simultaneous

59

29

12

Non-celebrity Vintage Boss Katana amplifier sells for more than price of 20 metric tons of iron ore or scrap by 2050

Dec 21, 12:12 AMDec 28, 2:59 PM

51.5%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

102

Will there be a 13 letter bingo in tournament scrabble play before 2034?

Feb 27, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.86%chance

227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

99

Will "Do reasoning models use their scratchpad like..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 28, 11:13 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.16%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

989

If this party wins the next election after 2024, will the Triple Lock pension be scrapped by the election after?

Aug 20, 6:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

Reform

Conservatives

Green

Liberal Democrats

Labour

63

50

50

50

37

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