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Prediction markets for SCRA

Will one person be able to rewrite the Linux Kernel from scratch in Rust, with the help of AI, by EOY 2030?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

27.47%chance

393526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1625

615

Will Labour's planned inheritance tax on UK farms over £1m be scrapped before April 2026?

Nov 4, 8:57 AMApr 30, 10:59 PM

7.01%chance

102777

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3641

275

Has Elon Musk’s Tesla scrapped plans to build Model 2 (low cost ~$25k car) as Reuters claims?

Apr 5, 5:44 PMJan 13, 12:59 PM

77.22%chance

452457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1883

429

By 2028, AI can build a website from scratch without more input from humans?

Jan 5, 11:29 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM

88.45%chance

161968

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1925

805

Will quantum computing lead to a scramble to quickly update encryption algorithms?

Jan 30, 10:23 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.74%chance

301129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

798

Will the triple lock pension be scrapped before the next General Election?

Jan 18, 4:47 PMJul 4, 9:59 PM

47.91%chance

13977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

959

Will over 100,000 people live in the "City Built From Scratch" by "The Silicon Valley Elite" in Solano County in 2030?

Aug 25, 10:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.27%chance

18917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1641

919

An AGI will surpass Nigel Richards in traditional Scrabble by the end of 2025

Jan 29, 7:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.35%chance

6186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

97

52

Will there be a fully scraped version of manifold.markets (scraped by any program and organically navigable+clickable) produced by 2030?

Jan 7, 2:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.09%chance

9133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

228

167

Non-celebrity Vintage Boss Katana amplifier sells for more than price of 20 metric tons of iron ore or scrap by 2050

Dec 21, 12:12 AMDec 28, 2:59 PM

51.5%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

102

Will "Do reasoning models use their scratchpad like..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 28, 11:13 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.16%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

989

If Nigel Richards ever plays a match against a Scrabble computer engine, who wins?

Nov 11, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

221

OptionProbability

The engine

Nigel

59

41

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