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Will Labour's planned inheritance tax on UK farms over £1m be scrapped before April 2026?

Nov 4, 8:57 AMApr 30, 10:59 PM

96.26%chance

125334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5076

197

Will one person be able to rewrite the Linux Kernel from scratch in Rust, with the help of AI, by EOY 2030?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

31.49%chance

455048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1475

678

By 2028, AI can build a website from scratch without more input from humans?

Jan 5, 11:29 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM

88.45%chance

161968

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1925

805

Will quantum computing lead to a scramble to quickly update encryption algorithms?

Jan 30, 10:23 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.74%chance

301129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

798

Will the triple lock pension be scrapped before the next General Election?

Jan 18, 4:47 PMJul 4, 9:59 PM

47.91%chance

13977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

959

Will over 100,000 people live in the "City Built From Scratch" by "The Silicon Valley Elite" in Solano County in 2030?

Aug 25, 10:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.27%chance

18917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1641

919

Will the two-child benefit cap be scrapped before the next UK election after 2024?

Jul 24, 1:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

90%chance

7403

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

33

Will Scrabble add a two letter C or V word by the end of 2027?

Sep 25, 10:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.95%chance

4137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will there be a fully scraped version of manifold.markets (scraped by any program and organically navigable+clickable) produced by 2030?

Jan 7, 2:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.09%chance

9133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

228

167

Will chatGPT (or some other AI program) generate a forum scraper than can adequately scrape any phpBB/vBulletin/Discourse/Invision Powerboard forum by 2026?

Jan 10, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.32%chance

468

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

97

Non-celebrity Vintage Boss Katana amplifier sells for more than price of 20 metric tons of iron ore or scrap by 2050

Dec 21, 12:12 AMDec 28, 2:59 PM

51.5%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

102

Will "Do reasoning models use their scratchpad like..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 28, 11:13 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.16%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

989

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