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Prediction markets for SE

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.33%chance

34552766301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10133

9455

Will Trump finish his second term?

Dec 5, 9:25 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

77.13%chance

7791261127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102671

88530

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

Nov 14, 9:56 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

1.68%chance

533838789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7951

147

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

18.48%chance

898515424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2483

689

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10.06%chance

826508702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

57414

10596

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46%chance

547459947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2969

2196

Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?

Jan 29, 12:35 AMNov 4, 12:00 AM

40.7%chance

205146247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10385

9876

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67%chance

8456997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143166

70518

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

49.12%chance

6123758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

49676

48822

What major iOS version will be the first to not support the iPhone SE (2nd generation)?

Nov 17, 5:49 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

5725

OptionProbability

iOS 27

iOS 28

Other

iOS 26

80

12

6

1

cuba se convertira en una democracia en 2026

Jan 14, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.94%chance

8247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

Will "Alignment Pretraining: AI Discourse Causes Se..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 21, 11:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22.52%chance

4179

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

607

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