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Prediction markets for SE

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

47.3%chance

34832801075

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10807

8736

Will Trump finish his second term?

Dec 5, 9:25 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

85.11%chance

10561863837

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134754

92215

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

Nov 14, 9:56 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

1.3%chance

553926462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9092

129

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

19%chance

971604489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2436

699

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

69114

9469

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

350295043

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6430

3801

Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?

Dec 8, 6:07 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

34.09%chance

524219804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27789

14308

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

41.15%chance

101120616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59424

42630

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.51%chance

9858808

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144853

69696

What major iOS version will be the first to not support the iPhone SE (2nd generation)?

Nov 17, 5:49 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

51198

OptionProbability

iOS 28

Other

iOS 26

iOS 27

50

49

1

0

cuba se convertira en una democracia en 2026

Jan 14, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.17%chance

13338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

42

Will "Alignment Pretraining: AI Discourse Causes Se..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 21, 11:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22.52%chance

4179

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

607

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