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Prediction markets for Search Agent

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.2%chance

11636496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14299

6435

Will fatal ICE shooting in the US occur again before March 2026?

Jan 26, 2:31 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

39%chance

351977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

861

297

Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?

May 9, 4:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.65%chance

7297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

278

37

When will Brave browser's Leo have agentic capacities?

Jan 21, 9:03 PMJan 21, 9:03 PM

2225

OptionProbability

After

Before Oct 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Apr 2026

64

24

17

10

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