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Gemini 3 released in November

Share value reaches $300 in 2025

Genie related product released to public before 2027

Google Search significant overhaul in 2025

Google Skills AI program launched in 2025

Imagen 5 released in 2026

GDP > 4b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)

Cabinet level current us official visits greenland

Trump visits greenland

GDP > 5b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)

Greenland has a positive annual migration rate (-4.9/1000 in 2024)

Us has another military base at least 500 personnel

Thule Air Force Base expands to over 3000 personnel at least part of the year, up from 600 now

Google trends for Greenland, judged at each January, never exceeds the search volume of Jan 2025, USA up to and including 2028

Greenland population is <80% ethnic greenlander (88% in 2025)

Greenland citizens receive money or other financial benefits from us gov

Greenland population falls below 40000

Chinese national population of Greenland exceeds 200

Greenland has 2 or more registered air flight carriers (1 in 2024)

Greenland has a military

20+ story building built

Greenland significantly changes its flag

Military conflict over Greenland at least 5 casualties involving two+ conflicting powers

Gains nuclear power station. Excluding military vessels. Portable is okay

Current Greenland political borders change so that another country has a piece of it

USD is the used currency

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23rd (Grants the District of Columbia electors in the Electoral College.)

22nd (Limits the number of times a person can be elected president.)

11th (Makes states immune from suits from out-of-state citizens and foreigners not living within the state borders; lays the foundation for state sovereign immunity.)

26th (Prohibits the denial of the right of US citizens 18 years of age or older, to vote on account of age.)

20th (Changes dates on which terms of president and VP, and of members of Congress, begin and end, to January 20 and January 3 respectively. States that if president-elect dies before taking office, VP–elect is to be inaugurated president)

25th (Addresses succession to the presidency and establishes procedures both for filling a vacancy in the office of the vice president and responding to presidential disabilities.)

27th (Delays laws affecting Congressional salary from taking effect until after the next election of representatives.)

6th (Protects the right to a speedy public trial by jury, to notification of criminal accusations, to confront the accuser, to obtain witnesses and to retain counsel.)

12th (Revises presidential election procedures by having the president and vice president elected together as opposed to the vice president being the runner up in the presidential election.)

3rd (Restricts the quartering of soldiers in private homes.)

5th (Sets out rules for indictment by grand jury and eminent domain, protects the right to due process, and prohibits self-incrimination and double jeopardy.)

15th (Prohibits the denial of the right to vote based on race, color or previous condition of servitude.)

24th (Prohibits the revocation of voting rights due to the non-payment of a poll tax or any other tax.)

1st (Protects freedom of religion, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly and the right to petition the government.)

4th (Prohibits unreasonable searches and seizures and sets out requirements for search warrants based on probable cause.)

7th (Provides for the right to a jury trial in civil lawsuits.)

8th (Prohibits excessive fines and excessive bail, as well as cruel and unusual punishment.)

9th (States that rights not enumerated in the Constitution are retained by the people.)

10th (States that the federal government possesses only those powers delegated, or enumerated, to it through the Constitution, and that all other powers are reserved to the States, or to the people.)

13th (Abolishes slavery and involuntary servitude, except as punishment for a crime.)

17th (Establishes the direct election of United States senators by popular vote.)

21st (Repeals the 18th Amendment and makes it a federal offense to transport or import intoxicating liquors into U.S. states and territories where such is prohibited by law.)

2nd (Protects the right to keep and bear arms.)

14th (Defines citizenship, contains the Privileges or Immunities Clause, the Due Process Clause, and the Equal Protection Clause, and deals with post–Civil War issues.)

16th (Permits Congress to levy an income tax without apportioning it among the various states or basing it on the United States Census.)

End exclusive dealing contracts

Prohibit Google defaults on Google products

Implement a choice screen

Set up a technical oversight committee

Force Google to share data with rivals

Mandate Google to delete data

Separate Chrome and Search into different companies

Assistant

Media Generation

Other

Coding

Search

Weapons

Synthetic biology

Stock Trading

"Copilot for Lawyers/Bureaucrats"

Human extinction

Social Media & Ad Selection

Loan Assessments

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Add tooltips that explain how everything works

Let a user filter to markets in which they have positions

If the user enters a date, it should be treated as a range from the beginning of that day to the end, not just the single millisecond at which that day begins.

Make the choice of which markets to store locally smarter, so it won't accidentally cross the 5MB localStorage limit.

Add proper inputs for dates and drop downs for categories

Multi-buy in multiple-choice markets

Add a quickbet button where the user inputs their expected probability, and it calculates and places the appropriate Kelly bet size based on their portfolio.

Add a tiny graph/sparkline on each row to show how the market has changed recently

Generate RSS feeds for user-specified queries (like https://hnrss.org/newest?points=100)

Add support for arbitraging similar markets/answers, either treating them as summing to 1 or specifying a target relative change percentage.

Make a userscript that overrides Manifold's default search with Isaac's search

Add an option to display each answer on a multiple-choice market as its own row in the search results.

A column to display the market price X amount of time ago, input by the user

Allow users to define more than one dashboard, and share them via URL with other people

Option to show dates in a standardized day/hour/minute format that all lines up

Add a filter to only show markets the user hasn't seen before.

Make the search boxes look nicer so they're not just a giant pile of input boxes. Lay them out in columns or hide ones the user isn't using or something.

Add an OR conjunction for search terms, so people can search for something like "question includes 'altman' OR 'OpenAI'"

Open markets in new tab by default

Add a "concise mode", which removes all extraneous text from the table, like the percent sign, M$ sign, etc. and aligns them all nicely

Add fuzzy searching that can catch typos and synonyms

Let people resize columns, or add intelligent column resizing

Let people see the limit orders of a selected user in each market

Dark Mode

Add support for other platforms. Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.

Add tiny arrows in each column header as a visual indicator that they can click there to sort the column

Let people see the position of a selected user in each market

Add reminders to check back on a market after some time

Add direct links to user profile and/or group pages, maybe accessible by shift-clicking on them.

Check to see if any of the code has changed upon page load, and if so wipe the cached market data and reload it.

Let people see the profit of a selected user in each market

Fix the graphical issues that cause fields to unfocus and dropdown menus to disappear each time new data is loaded

Add some way for clicking on a group or creator to wipe the rest of the search. Maybe shift-click? Or maybe it should be the default?

Add more complex diff detection so that the client can catch up on what it missed if it loses internet for a few minutes, or at least tell the user it's out of date

Add hotkeys to make trading and searching even faster

Add more sensible step values to the numeric input fields

Allow people to place long-term limit orders

Make the "last updated time" field include edits to the market description

Somehow convince Manifold to waive the API fee if bets are placed via Predictionary

Make it look not-terrible (this suggestion is for aesthetics only, not functionally-useful layout/display features)

Allow users to see whether a multiple-choice market is select-one or select-multiple

Display who can add answers on a multiple-choice market

Give it a better name than Predictionary. (Suggestions welcome.)

Add support for Polymarket front-running. (https://medium.com/@eightyhi/blockchain-based-amms-arent-fit-for-prediction-markets-bbe6ad7a33ca)

Make a row flash when its probability changes

Add a bulk bet button that can bet on all markets in the dashboard

Fix the bug that causes some resolved markets to not be marked as closed

Add a way to view/query detailed historical market data

Add a one-click feedback form on the page itself

Fix links to Manifold markets (currently all links go to "/{username}/undefined")

Add a filter/sort by recently subsidized

Add an option to change the height of each row such that it's proportional to the width of the interval between the previous market's close time and the next market's close time, so distance down the page represents time in the future.

Fix the bug that causes numeric markets to be displayed as though they were regular percentage markets.

Other

Papers with Code https://paperswithcode.com/

A well curated twitter feed / list

MIT

Google Scholar with Advanced Search, E.g. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?as_ylo=2023&q=A.I.&hl=en&as_sdt=0,24

ArXiv With Advanced Search https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=1&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=Artificial+Intelligence&terms-0-field=title&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-inclu

Proceedings of IEEE https://proceedingsoftheieee.ieee.org/

AI Weekly https://aiweekly.co/

Other

Hacker News Algolia Search https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&query=prompt%20engineering&sort=byPopularity&type=story

Prompt Engineering Search Github https://github.com/search?q=llm+prompt+engineering&ref=simplesearch

Kandel, Dudai & Mayford (2014) "The Molecular and Systems Biology of Memory"

Auletta (2011) “Cognitive biology” Chapter 17

Michaelian (2011) “Generative memory”

Michaelian & Sutton (2017) “Memory”

Kandel (2009) "The Biology of Memory: A Forty-Year Perspective”

Schacter (1997) "Searching For Memory"

Ortega-de San Luis & Ryan (2022) "Understanding the physical basis of memory: Molecular mechanisms of the engram”

Schacter & Addis (2007) “The cognitive neuroscience of constructive memory: remembering the past and imagining the future”

Morimoto & Koshland (1991) "Short-term and long-term memory in single cells"