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Prediction markets for Search GPT

Will it appear that the openai.com GPT-4.5 turbo blogpost that appeared in DuckDuckGo results was real?

Mar 12, 7:59 PMJan 1, 7:28 AM

4.55%chance

6379069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3941

426

Will any large company leave California because of AI regulations? (2025)

Jun 12, 5:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

184169

OptionProbability

Nothing will happen

Completely leave

Move employees elsewhere

Move model training or inference elsewhere

96

1

1

1

Will any large company leave the United States because of AI regulations? (2025)

Jun 12, 5:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

163356

OptionProbability

Nothing will happen

Move model training or inference elsewhere

Move employees elsewhere

Completely leave

90

4

3

2

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

36.86%chance

473297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1443

1123

Will GPT-5 think ChatGPT with internet browsing plugins is a search engine?

May 29, 12:27 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

14.62%chance

10711

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1337

475

On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?

Dec 15, 10:20 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.45%chance

14494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1204

892

Does gpt2-chatbot have a search mechanism?

Apr 30, 11:34 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

9.15%chance

6292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

315

32

Will the GPT4+code-interpreter+search score > 1350 on Lmsys Arena Leaderboard?

Jan 27, 7:04 PMFeb 4, 4:59 AM

48.64%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

70

Which AI gave the best response to the White Lotus meme?

Mar 19, 10:01 AM

450

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