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Prediction markets for Search history

Will the federal government bring a criminal or civil case against Ilhan Omar over her immigration history by EOY 2027?

Oct 22, 8:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

141296

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will a federal court filing by the US gov allege that Ilhan Omar's ex-husband is her biological sibling, by EOY 2027?

Oct 22, 8:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.46%chance

131236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

841

What is going on at the CIA? [ADD RESPONSES]

Feb 5, 3:02 AMJan 1, 2:58 AM

151022

OptionProbability

CIA bypassing warrants and oversight; creating massive taxpayer and social security database; via Palantir

criminal activity

Something to do with Donald Trump specifically

Something to do with Tulsi Gabbard

A (alleged) cover up of some kind

Something to do with Jeffrey Epstein

49

46

34

25

24

14

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Now Google buys Dave & Buster’s in 2036

Feb 10, 3:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.23%chance

2160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Which of these countries will Matt Lakeman visit and write about before 2030?

Jun 16, 5:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

Grenada

Armenia

Phillipines

Mongolia

Taiwan

Morocco

Vietnam

Estonia

Rwanda

Burundi

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

45

45

By the end of 2036, will US federal law guarantee $6,000/year in cash to a non-disabled adult with no income?

Sep 30, 12:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.36%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

99

Were any of the Venezuelans recently deported from America to El Salvador's mega-prison innocent?

Mar 24, 12:17 AM

150

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