Search Labs News

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

Dec 3, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

32.31%chance

647915

OptionVotes

YES

1167

876

Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?

Mar 15, 9:40 PMMar 16, 6:59 AM

214514

OptionProbability

Alina Chan

Yuri Deigin

Saar Wilf

Joscha Bach

Zeynep Tufecki

Jesse Bloom

Sam Harris

Nate Silver

Richard Hanania

Ralph Baric

Zvi Mowshowitz

Matt Yglesias

Scott Aaronson

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Scott Alexander

Philipp Markolin

Michael Worobey

Kristian Andersen

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

39.72%chance

20807

OptionVotes

YES

1328

683

Yann LeCun's AMI (props)

Mar 10, 8:36 PMMar 10, 8:36 PM

4288

OptionProbability

AMI goes public by Dec 31, 2030, through IPO, SPAC, RTO, or any other mechanism on any exchange

Headcount exceeds 150 employees by Dec 31, 2026

Announces revenue partnership beyond Nabla by Sep 30, 2026

Raises next funding round above $5B valuation by Mar 31, 2027

Releases open-source world model code by Dec 31, 2026

Will many visual artists in the US be compensated for AI models trained on their work before the end of 2027?

May 6, 8:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.48%chance

6268

OptionVotes

YES

352

Will I be able to buy a lab-grown turkey by Thanksgiving 2029?

Nov 28, 2:20 AMNov 23, 6:59 AM

37.37%chance

12213

OptionVotes

YES

203

179

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

May 22, 11:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

3180

OptionProbability

Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work

Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)

Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks

Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues

Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery

[Carlini questions] AI system exists that has significant CBRN risk

Mar 24, 2:21 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5158

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Will interest in lab grown diamond stud earrings continue to grow in the US by the end of 2026?

Jul 29, 8:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

213

OptionVotes

YES

110

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

Dec 3, 4:22 PM

Search Labs News

Prediction markets for Search Labs

Prediction markets for Search Labs

Prediction markets for Search Labs

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Yann LeCun's AMI (props)

Will many visual artists in the US be compensated for AI models trained on their work before the end of 2027?

Will I be able to buy a lab-grown turkey by Thanksgiving 2029?

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

[Carlini questions] AI system exists that has significant CBRN risk

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

Will interest in lab grown diamond stud earrings continue to grow in the US by the end of 2026?

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

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