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Prediction markets for Search Labs

Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?

Nov 30, 3:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.01%chance

11848359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5267

645

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

Dec 3, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47%chance

565250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1114

799

Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?

Mar 15, 9:40 PMMar 16, 6:59 AM

204112

OptionProbability

Alina Chan

Saar Wilf

Yuri Deigin

Joscha Bach

Zeynep Tufecki

Jesse Bloom

Sam Harris

Nate Silver

Richard Hanania

Ralph Baric

Scott Aaronson

Matt Yglesias

Zvi Mowshowitz

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Philipp Markolin

Scott Alexander

Michael Worobey

Kristian Andersen

74

74

72

72

61

50

50

41

35

28

19

18

17

10

9

5

3

1

8. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier labs will begin ‘moving up the stack,’ [...] building applications

Dec 27, 8:22 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

94.68%chance

173443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4220

237

Will scaling transformers lead to a 60% score on ARC-AGI-2?

Apr 25, 3:34 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

69%chance

20780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

68

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will many visual artists in the US be compensated for AI models trained on their work before the end of 2027?

May 6, 8:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7%chance

5267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

365

27

Will it replicate? Genetic and Functional Drivers of Diffuse Large B Cell Lymphoma (Cell, 2017, by March 2026)

Nov 27, 11:26 AMMar 1, 11:00 AM

6209

OptionProbability

No replication attempt published

Failure to replicate

Retraction/Notice of concern

Controversial resolution

Replication

52

50

41

39

18

Will I be able to buy a lab-grown turkey by Thanksgiving 2029?

Nov 28, 2:20 AMNov 23, 6:59 AM

40%chance

10200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

187

[Carlini questions] AI system exists that has significant CBRN risk

Mar 24, 2:21 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5158

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

87

85

83

75

39

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

Dec 3, 4:22 PM

10

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