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Prediction markets for Search Live

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.44%chance

12638679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12739

8335

Do we live in a simulation?

Nov 24, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

42.55%chance

513369

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1102

815

Will I be the victim of an AI blackmail/ransom threat by EOY 2031?

Jun 23, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.95%chance

52267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

981

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

332036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1534

660

Will Democrats win big in 2024? || Will "downfall of America will really speed up" during 2024-2028?

Sep 1, 6:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

131704

OptionProbability

Democrats no || downfall yes

Democrats no || downfall no

Democrats yes || downfall yes

Democrats yes || downfall no

49

49

1

1

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Polymarket exceeds $10B monthly trading volume in Dec 2027?

Nov 20, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.88%chance

6274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

Do we live in a simulation?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

40.7%chance

3102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

92

A free web browser can search for text within images on web pages, by mid 2027

Nov 25, 9:34 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

50.19%chance

459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

By the end of 2036, will US federal law guarantee $6,000/year in cash to a non-disabled adult with no income?

Sep 30, 12:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.36%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

99

Will AI-powered tools become the main way businesses find B2B contacts by 2028?

Oct 6, 6:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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