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Prediction markets for Search Live

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.24%chance

10422599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11634

10188

Will a high-profile news story about my egg freezing journey lead to problems working with clinics in the future

Sep 11, 9:27 PMDec 31, 10:19 PM

33%chance

283390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

Will I be the victim of an AI blackmail/ransom threat by EOY 2031?

Jun 23, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.95%chance

52267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

981

Do we live in a simulation?

Nov 24, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

35.1%chance

452048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

986

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will Democrats win big in 2024? || Will "downfall of America will really speed up" during 2024-2028?

Sep 1, 6:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

111691

OptionProbability

Democrats no || downfall no

Democrats no || downfall yes

Democrats yes || downfall yes

Democrats yes || downfall no

52

46

1

1

Grok uses Telegram channels as one of content sources by mid-2026?

May 31, 10:10 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

51.35%chance

6675

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

978

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Polymarket exceeds $10B monthly trading volume in Dec 2027?

Nov 20, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.5%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

65

A free web browser can search for text within images on web pages, by mid 2027

Nov 25, 9:34 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

50.19%chance

459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Were any of the Venezuelans recently deported from America to El Salvador's mega-prison innocent?

Mar 24, 12:17 AM

140

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