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Prediction markets for Secret

Will BTE's secret plan work?

Oct 23, 1:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5%chance

121153020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5107

395

Will Robert Downey Jr. appear in Avengers: Secret Wars?

Nov 6, 9:25 AMDec 17, 10:00 AM

95.5%chance

285636

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2747

42

Will Hugh Jackman appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"?

Jan 27, 9:08 AMDec 17, 10:00 AM

88.91%chance

322919

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2416

133

Is there secret treasure at the giant X of Reverse Mountain in One Piece?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.25%chance

442537

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1290

770

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

321030

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

Will Andrew Garfield appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"?

Jan 27, 7:08 AMDec 17, 10:00 AM

35.79%chance

25768

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

896

Will Doctor Doom be alive at the end of Avengers: Secret Wars?

May 14, 2:36 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

64.4%chance

10559

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1345

744

Will Chris Hemsworth appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"?

Jan 27, 11:08 AMDec 17, 10:00 AM

82.27%chance

15480

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

895

Will an active Manifold user be indicted for selling military secrets to another country before the end of 2030?

Apr 2, 6:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.47%chance

15398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1321

854

Before 2030, will a NATO soldier publish a memoir claiming they were secretly on Ukrainian soil in 2022 or 2023?

Jun 29, 6:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

72.11%chance

14372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

984

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

988

Where will the next treasure from The Secret be found?

May 16, 3:59 PMDec 6, 4:57 PM

00

OptionProbability

San Francisco, CA

Charleston, SC

Roanoke Island, NC

St. Augustine, FL

Houston, TX

Milwaukee, WI

Montreal, QC

New Orleans, LA

New York, NY

Other

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

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