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Prediction markets for Secret

Will BTE's secret plan work?

Oct 23, 1:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.68%chance

121152872

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6180

347

Is there secret treasure at the giant X of Reverse Mountain in One Piece?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.88%chance

422382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

759

Will it be revealed that China has a secret human genetic engineering program that dates back to 2023 before 2033?

Dec 22, 7:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26%chance

381409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1577

691

Will Donald Trump die while in Secret Service custody?

Aug 2, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.61%chance

231395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2047

846

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32930

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

Will Doctor Doom be alive at the end of Avengers: Secret Wars?

May 14, 2:36 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

64.4%chance

10559

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1345

744

Will it be discovered by the end of the decade that in 2022 major AGI progress was made but it was kept secret for more than two years to maximize its usefulness?

Jan 24, 8:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.57%chance

14472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1335

931

Will "How AI Is Learning to Think in Secret" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 8, 6:08 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

20.62%chance

6373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

669

Before 2030, will a NATO soldier publish a memoir claiming they were secretly on Ukrainian soil in 2022 or 2023?

Jun 29, 6:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

72.11%chance

14372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

984

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?

Feb 3, 4:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.27%chance

11293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

937

Will an active Manifold user be indicted for selling military secrets to another country before the end of 2030?

Apr 2, 6:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.51%chance

14198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

932

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

988

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