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Prediction markets for Secret

Will BTE's secret plan work?

Oct 23, 1:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.3%chance

120150616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8237

286

Will Robert Downey Jr. appear in Avengers: Secret Wars?

Nov 6, 9:25 AMApr 30, 11:00 AM

94.69%chance

242806

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2632

48

Is there secret treasure at the giant X of Reverse Mountain in One Piece?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.88%chance

422382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

759

Will Hugh Jackman appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"?

Jan 27, 9:08 AMMay 1, 11:00 AM

56.02%chance

211340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1374

477

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32930

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

Will Doctor Doom be alive at the end of Avengers: Secret Wars?

May 14, 2:36 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

64.4%chance

10559

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1345

744

Will Andrew Garfield appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"?

Jan 27, 7:08 AMMay 1, 11:00 AM

35.75%chance

18545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

897

Will Chris Hemsworth appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"?

Jan 27, 11:08 AMApr 30, 11:00 AM

82.27%chance

15480

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

895

Before 2030, will a NATO soldier publish a memoir claiming they were secretly on Ukrainian soil in 2022 or 2023?

Jun 29, 6:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

72.11%chance

14372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

984

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?

Feb 3, 4:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.27%chance

11293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

937

Will an active Manifold user be indicted for selling military secrets to another country before the end of 2030?

Apr 2, 6:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.51%chance

14198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

932

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

988

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