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Prediction markets for Section 31

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7647518

OptionProbability

3.5-4 months

3-3.5 months

4-4.5 months

4.5-5 months

<3 months

>7 months

5-5.5 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

6.5-7 months

25

20

17

14

7

5

4

3

3

2

U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

Jun 9, 2:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.16%chance

4344500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128439

102675

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.09%chance

2016004

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9006

1009

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.94%chance

2013543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13569

1337

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.19%chance

327878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8632

3470

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10497

2690

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.61%chance

235041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5459

2563

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.68%chance

133709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6632

3220

Will the WA SWIS annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 90 AUD per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

25.33%chance

53536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13504

8507

Will WA SWIS 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$150/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

27.69%chance

42511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12479

8876

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

Will Section 230(c) of the Communications Decency Act be significantly amended or repealed by December 31, 2026?

Oct 24, 2:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.71%chance

4148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

48

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