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Top stories

Louisiana Urges Supreme Court to Strike VRA’s Section 2, End Race-Based Maps

Louisiana Urges Supreme Court to Strike VRA’s Section 2, End Race-Based Maps

Authors

14

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Section

Will President Trump be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 during the 2025-2029 term?

Feb 10, 5:00 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

9.09%chance

206156391

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5982

5795

Will GPT-5 have a perfect SAT score in either section?

Mar 31, 11:37 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.62%chance

13120586

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

725

Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked against Donald Trump by his VP and cabinet during his second term?

Nov 6, 8:14 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

135776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3427

292

Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked before Inauguration Day 2029?

Sep 2, 9:08 PMJan 20, 4:59 PM

8.21%chance

103297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3343

299

Will any additional major section of the White House be demolished in 2026?

Oct 24, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.14%chance

13614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

49

Next president to be declared incapacitated by 25th Amendment section 4

Feb 11, 2:56 AMOct 29, 9:18 PM

5303

OptionProbability

Other

Trump

Biden

84

15

1

Will Section 230 be repealed by the end of 2028?

Mar 21, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.9%chance

2202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1202

832

Will Manifold’s Wikipedia page have a criticism section by end of 2030?

Jan 12, 12:07 AMJan 1, 12:06 AM

43.83%chance

6142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

88

Will Section 230(c) of the Communications Decency Act be significantly amended or repealed by December 31, 2026?

Oct 24, 2:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.72%chance

3124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

54

Will the Israeli metro project contain any elevated sections?

Aug 6, 12:45 PMAug 6, 8:59 PM

49.82%chance

335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

98

79

By 2050 will it be clear that any section of the U.S. Armed Forces entered DEFCON 1 between 2020 and 2030?

Mar 14, 8:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31.96%chance

331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

99

51

By 2050 will it be clear that any section of the U.S. Armed Forces entered DEFCON 3 between 2020 and 2030?

Mar 14, 8:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

55.23%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

81

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