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Prediction markets for Secure Future Initiative

What countries would join Abraham Accords in 2025

Oct 13, 8:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

192324

OptionProbability

None

Kazakhstan

Azerbaijan

Saudi Arabia

Indonesia

Armenia

Syria

Lebanon

Qatar

78

20

18

6

6

5

3

2

2

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

580

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.58%chance

131631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1965

509

Proof of Personhood SDK stock

Apr 8, 8:05 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

21351

OptionProbability

NO

YES

416

404

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?

Dec 4, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.59%chance

3240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1240

806

Will DC metro trains (all lines) have no staff onboard by 2035?

May 20, 12:33 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45%chance

491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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