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Prediction markets for Security Affairs

Will Donald Trump carry out an invasion of Greenland before 2029?

Feb 27, 6:35 PMJan 4, 11:59 PM

16.74%chance

162498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

45

Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035?

May 27, 2:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.79%chance

161362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1696

589

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32930

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

Will Windows's desktop market share in 2026 be at least 5% lower than in 2024?

Mar 18, 5:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.81%chance

17436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

316

179

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 30th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3135

OptionProbability

Bob Archuleta (incumbent)

Other

85

15

Will Katharina Reiche stop being the german Minister of Energy by the next regular election?

Mar 5, 3:08 PMSep 27, 11:59 PM

53.08%chance

399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

94

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