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Prediction markets for self

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87%chance

27143410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4674

1450

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.75%chance

12723488

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3006

1677

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Aug 26, 7:20 PMAug 24, 6:59 AM

5.31%chance

12321574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4221

237

If Trump self-pardons, will the Supreme Court rule the action unconstitutional?

Sep 19, 12:44 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

36.91%chance

5911079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1524

406

Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR?

Nov 2, 7:43 PMDec 2, 5:59 AM

23.19%chance

828859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1462

798

Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?

Jun 11, 7:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

24%chance

538570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1780

562

Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?

Nov 2, 10:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

88.47%chance

536467

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2371

141

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Sep 13, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.02%chance

695627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2783

1747

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.48%chance

231701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1734

365

Will the first self-driving car company to deploy in 50 cities use an end-to-end approach?

Oct 6, 1:13 PMJan 14, 4:59 AM

72.59%chance

181548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1736

350

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Jan 4, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.62%chance

141096

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

974

Will the Swedish Transport Workers' Union (Transportarbetareförbundet) officially oppose self driving vehicles?

Apr 18, 1:53 PMJan 1, 2:47 PM

42.2%chance

3307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

954

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