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Prediction markets for self

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

76.24%chance

24534490

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2846

1841

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83%chance

11419905

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4405

1278

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Aug 26, 7:20 PMAug 24, 6:59 AM

48.3%chance

10517092

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

967

If Trump self-pardons, will the Supreme Court rule the action unconstitutional?

Sep 19, 12:44 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

28.82%chance

5710723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1680

309

Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR?

Nov 2, 7:43 PMDec 2, 5:59 AM

23.19%chance

818849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1462

798

Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?

Jun 11, 7:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

23.63%chance

528564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1798

556

Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?

Nov 2, 10:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

89.54%chance

525984

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2453

130

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Sep 13, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.02%chance

695627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2783

1747

Drunk driving is legal again for self-driving car drivers in at least one US state before 2033

Jun 26, 7:04 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.92%chance

683206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1696

903

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.74%chance

221693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1726

368

Will I be impressed by someone using RL through self-play to improve model creativity or aesthetics in 2025?

Jan 27, 12:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.5%chance

6731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10255

9775

Will a satisfactory sub-quadratic attention operator be found to replace quadratic self-attention layers by 2026?

Sep 24, 2:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

54.17%chance

14587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1481

675

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