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Prediction markets for self

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68%chance

25135143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2155

2105

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.6%chance

11822685

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4012

1368

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Aug 26, 7:20 PMAug 24, 6:59 AM

17.86%chance

11319267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2145

466

If Trump self-pardons, will the Supreme Court rule the action unconstitutional?

Sep 19, 12:44 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

33.39%chance

5710832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1600

365

Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR?

Nov 2, 7:43 PMDec 2, 5:59 AM

23.51%chance

828854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1445

803

Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?

Jun 11, 7:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

23.95%chance

538569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1782

561

Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?

Nov 2, 10:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

85.73%chance

536419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2196

166

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Sep 13, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.02%chance

695627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2783

1747

Drunk driving is legal again for self-driving car drivers in at least one US state before 2033

Jun 26, 7:04 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.41%chance

693556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

818

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.74%chance

221693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1726

368

Will the first self-driving car company to deploy in 50 cities use an end-to-end approach?

Oct 6, 1:13 PMJan 14, 4:59 AM

72.59%chance

181548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1736

350

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Jan 4, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.78%chance

131089

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

977

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