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Prediction markets for Sell

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.02%chance

9257160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143218

70492

Will Tesla become the top-selling car manufacturer in 2027?

Aug 19, 11:35 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

7.31%chance

13543125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5141

1325

Will Tesla sell >$1B of humanoid robots by 2030?

Oct 1, 2:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

35.06%chance

656801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

944

Will a painting created by an AI sell for over $10 million at a major auction house by 2030?

May 19, 6:45 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

30.83%chance

674479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1835

742

Will Trump "Sell Out" Taiwan Under Rubio's State Department

Nov 8, 12:34 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

173948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1392

718

Will a European country ban selling meat by 2100?

Aug 14, 11:40 AMAug 14, 10:59 PM

71.47%chance

623413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1599

715

Will we be able to sell the manifest dragon shirt designed by @etirabys in the manifold merch store?

Jan 26, 7:57 PMDec 31, 7:56 PM

63.4%chance

7710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1316

760

Energy Fuels sells ≥500,000 pounds of V₂O₅ in 2026?

Nov 26, 5:44 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

57.01%chance

5392

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

868

Will a Nectome discount card sell for at least $60k before 2036?

Apr 15, 4:17 AMApr 15, 4:11 AM

49.64%chance

4300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

993

Will Buick sell 20k+ EVs in the US in 2030?

Oct 5, 10:04 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

49.55%chance

2200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

991

Will Elizabeth Holmes have published a best-selling book before 2045

May 23, 4:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.07%chance

11196

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

949

Will Hybrid Air Vehicles sell >0 Airlander 10 before 2029?

Feb 24, 10:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.22%chance

3102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

209

201

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