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Prediction markets for Semi

How far will Real Madrid advance in the Champions League?

Aug 29, 1:40 AMJun 1, 11:59 PM

1813354

OptionProbability

Group Stage

Round of 16

Quarter-Finals

Semi-Finals

Final

Winner

100

84

45

31

15

8

How far will the USA advance in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Aug 6, 2:16 PMJul 20, 3:59 AM

539019

OptionProbability

Round of 16

Group Stage

Quarter-Finals

Semi-Finals

Winner

Final

33

32

17

11

4

3

How far will the US get in the 2026 world cup

Dec 18, 3:55 PMDec 19, 9:59 PM

302950

OptionProbability

Round of 16

Preliminaries

Quarter finals

Semi finals

Finals

Won't make it

36

21

20

17

4

3

Will there be a dark horse run in the 2026 Fifa World Cup?

Nov 17, 2:20 PMJul 20, 11:59 PM

101607

OptionProbability

Yes, and they will reach quarter-finals

Yes, and they will reach semi-finals

Yes, and they will reach finals

Yes, and they will be champions

91

57

24

10

Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035?

May 27, 2:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.79%chance

161362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1696

589

Will an African team reach the semi-finals of the 2026 World Cup?

Jan 27, 1:23 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM

21.17%chance

9155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

52

Is 5 the only semi-nice number?

Sep 19, 3:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.46%chance

2140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

33

Will "If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies, a semi-out..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 14, 2:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.08%chance

3105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

989

Will Atomic Semi sell something substantial before 2028?

Feb 23, 2:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.27%chance

687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

186

120

Will Electric Semi-Truck sales exceed Internal Combustion Semi-Trucks by 2035 in USA.

Oct 8, 11:04 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

53.27%chance

646

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

94

Will the USMNT reach the World Cup semi-finals by the end of 2034?

Jun 3, 3:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.15%chance

342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Will Austin Shao be hired for Atomic Semi (https://atomicsemi.com/ ) before 2027?

Mar 26, 1:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.64%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

70

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