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Prediction markets for Semi

2026 Fifa World Cup Semi-finalists (top 4)

Mar 18, 4:00 PMJul 14, 11:59 PM

255957

OptionProbability

Argentina

France

Spain

England

Brazil

Portugal

Germany

Norway

Morocco

Japan

61

53

44

37

29

23

18

14

8

7

Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035?

May 27, 2:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.79%chance

161362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1696

589

Will England reach the semi-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Jun 9, 9:54 AMJul 18, 11:59 PM

35%chance

13593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

73

Will an African team reach the semi-finals of the 2026 World Cup?

Jan 27, 1:23 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM

18.14%chance

17504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

212

47

Will an African team reach the semi-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Jun 9, 11:24 AMJul 18, 11:59 PM

17.26%chance

13246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

46

Is 5 the only semi-nice number?

Sep 19, 3:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.46%chance

2140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

33

Will "If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies, a semi-out..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 14, 2:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.08%chance

3105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

989

Will England make Semi-finals of the 2026 World Cup?

Jun 29, 6:42 AMJul 15, 11:59 PM

28.47%chance

690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

316

203

Will Atomic Semi sell something substantial before 2028?

Feb 23, 2:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.27%chance

687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

186

120

2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Semi-Finals

May 17, 3:19 AMJul 15, 11:59 PM

180

OptionProbability

TBD beats TBD ⚽ July 15 (3pm) FOX

TBD beats TBD ⚽ July 14 (3pm) FOX

51

50

Will the USMNT reach the World Cup semi-finals by the end of 2034?

Jun 3, 3:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.15%chance

342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Will Austin Shao be hired for Atomic Semi (https://atomicsemi.com/ ) before 2027?

Mar 26, 1:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.64%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

70

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