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Prediction markets for SemiAnalysis

H100 GPU rental price (MNX)

Sep 11, 11:01 PM

16545072

Will Huawei ship at least one million 910C chips in 2026?

Dec 12, 3:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.96%chance

4623413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12005

8330

Who will offer the most canonical compute price index at the end of 2026?

Apr 9, 5:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

257836

OptionProbability

Compute Desk

Silicon Data

Ornn

SemiAnalysis

Other

SquareTower

Hyperbolic

Compute Exchange

Global Compute Index

46

21

10

8

5

2

2

2

2

China produces 3nm chips before 2027?

Mar 25, 5:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.35%chance

152332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2443

409

Will OpenAI in EOY 2027 primarily serve inference on their flagship model on non-GPU hardware

Sep 3, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.45%chance

12123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

Which company will operate the largest AI datacenter campus at the end of 2027?

Jul 27, 4:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4100

OptionProbability

xAI

Meta

Anthropic

Other

Microsoft

Amazon

OpenAI

Oracle

20

17

16

13

10

10

9

5

Will any single datacenter campus reach 2 GW of power capacity by the end of 2027

Jul 20, 11:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.36%chance

445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

99

Will gwern OR Jose Luis Ricon subscribe to Semianalysis (or be gifted a subscription) by EOY2028?

Apr 27, 7:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.66%chance

436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

Will CXMT reach mass production of HBM3 by the end of 2026?

Jun 23, 11:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.71%chance

335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

91

Best score on GDPx benchmark at end of 2027

Nov 4, 2:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

30-40%

20-30%

40-50%

<20%

50-60%

60-70%

70-80%

80-90%

90-100%

20

15

15

8

8

8

8

8

8

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