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Prediction markets for SemiAnalysis

Will Huawei ship at least one million 910C chips in 2026?

Dec 12, 3:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.08%chance

3315660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12750

7843

Who will offer the most canonical compute price index at the end of 2026?

Apr 9, 5:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74072

OptionProbability

Silicon Data

Ornn

SemiAnalysis

SquareTower

Hyperbolic

Compute Exchange

Global Compute Index

Other

41

26

13

4

4

4

4

4

China produces 3nm chips before 2027?

Mar 25, 5:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.66%chance

11780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1343

744

Will gwern OR Jose Luis Ricon subscribe to Semianalysis (or be gifted a subscription) by EOY2028?

Apr 27, 7:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.66%chance

436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

Will CXMT reach mass production of HBM3 by the end of 2026?

Jun 23, 11:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48%chance

226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

82

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