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Prediction markets for SemiAnalysis

Will Huawei ship at least one million 910C chips in 2026?

Dec 12, 3:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.8%chance

3114955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13994

7146

Who will offer the most canonical compute price index at the end of 2026?

Apr 9, 5:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73322

OptionProbability

Ornn

Silicon Data

SemiAnalysis

SquareTower

Hyperbolic

Compute Exchange

Global Compute Index

Other

34

25

17

5

5

5

5

5

China produces 3nm chips before 2027?

Mar 25, 5:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.42%chance

10730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1293

773

Will gwern OR Jose Luis Ricon subscribe to Semianalysis (or be gifted a subscription) by EOY2028?

Apr 27, 7:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.66%chance

436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

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