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Prediction markets for SemiAnalysis

H100 GPU rental price (MNX)

Sep 11, 11:01 PM

940415

Will Huawei ship at least one million 910C chips in 2026?

Dec 12, 3:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.43%chance

4522705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11182

8943

Who will offer the most canonical compute price index at the end of 2026?

Apr 9, 5:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

104587

OptionProbability

Silicon Data

Ornn

SemiAnalysis

SquareTower

Hyperbolic

Compute Exchange

Global Compute Index

Other

41

28

11

4

4

4

4

4

China produces 3nm chips before 2027?

Mar 25, 5:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.81%chance

141342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1893

528

Which company will operate the largest AI datacenter campus at the end of 2027?

Jul 27, 4:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4100

OptionProbability

xAI

Meta

Anthropic

Other

Microsoft

Amazon

OpenAI

Oracle

20

17

16

13

10

10

9

5

Will OpenAI in EOY 2027 primarily serve inference on their flagship model on non-GPU hardware

Sep 3, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.01%chance

772

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Will any single datacenter campus reach 2 GW of power capacity by the end of 2027

Jul 20, 11:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.36%chance

445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

99

Will gwern OR Jose Luis Ricon subscribe to Semianalysis (or be gifted a subscription) by EOY2028?

Apr 27, 7:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.66%chance

436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

Will CXMT reach mass production of HBM3 by the end of 2026?

Jun 23, 11:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.71%chance

335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

91

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