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Prediction markets for Senior Generative AI

Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026

Feb 4, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.76%chance

91855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2228

449

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

977

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Mar 11, 11:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.75%chance

21909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

448

22

Open ia fait faillite avant la fin de l’année ?

Mar 27, 3:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.28%chance

6549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

34

Will The US Hold Captive A Iranian Leader By 4th Of July?

Mar 23, 1:53 AMJan 1, 2:53 AM

17.78%chance

13408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

47

Will OpenAI publicly state that they know how to safely align a superintelligence before 2030?

Nov 3, 11:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.38%chance

12254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

889

Will Demis Hassabis still be at Google at the end of 2026?

Sep 1, 3:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95.53%chance

9183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

169

1

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Feb 20, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

11156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will I successfully relocate from Brazil to take up long-term or permanent residence in another country?

Aug 28, 5:58 PMDec 31, 3:00 AM

68.26%chance

792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

68

Will an "AGI insider" class accept the political disempowerment of everyone else?

Aug 8, 9:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.65%chance

450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Argentina VS Uruguay

Nov 3, 9:34 PMNov 17, 11:59 PM

230

OptionProbability

Argentina

Uruguay

63

37

Will Tetsuwan be cross-compatible with pylabrobot and JACK JAY'S ROBOT by EOY2029?

May 21, 3:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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