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Prediction markets for September

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision in September

Aug 1, 4:13 PMSep 17, 5:59 PM

230159569

OptionProbability

25 bps decrease

No change

50+ bps decrease

Increase

78

18

4

0

Trump approval rating 44.2% or higher on September 1st?

Aug 1, 7:18 PMSep 1, 7:00 PM

29.38%chance

31184033

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1550

645

Will Bluesky have 50 million users by September 2025? (~triple what it is mid-November)

Nov 14, 9:19 AMSep 1, 10:59 PM

1.05%chance

12974290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9704

103

Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September 2025?

Jul 15, 7:53 PMSep 15, 11:59 PM

82%chance

10431821

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2134

469

Which company has best AI model end of September? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Jul 4, 5:01 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

6627267

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Anthropic

Other

DeepSeek

Meta

Alibaba

83

4

4

4

2

1

0

0

Trump tries to fire Powell before September 1?

Jul 13, 2:57 AMSep 1, 11:59 PM

2.65%chance

8420748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9779

356

UK recognizes Palestine as a state at the UN General Assembly in September 2025

Jul 29, 8:41 PMSep 25, 11:59 PM

45.23%chance

222377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

909

Will unemployment in the US be higher in September 2026 than in either September 2022 or September 2024?

Jan 4, 2:27 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

51.16%chance

8499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

977

Will hello-lume ship a robot by the end of September 2026

Jul 28, 7:28 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

43.2%chance

7423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

872

California State Route 1 thru Big Sur open before September 2027?

Jul 15, 6:25 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

54.79%chance

2117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

908

California State Route 1 thru Big Sur open before September 2026?

Jul 15, 6:25 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Crystal Mall in Waterford, CT will close before September 23, 2025

Mar 28, 2:56 PMSep 22, 11:59 PM

50.74%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

985

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