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Prediction markets for Service

Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?

Jan 16, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.11%chance

653402566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1614

880

Will there exist a service for full-parameter fine-tuning of Llama 3.1 405B?

Aug 18, 12:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.78%chance

3774174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24016

4162

Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?

Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

64.35%chance

607115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13407

7472

Will gmail or outlook have a "persuasion detection system" built into their email services by 2025 end?

Apr 23, 12:36 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

12.18%chance

694596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2592

1018

Will Brightline West open for service before 2030?

Jun 18, 4:25 PMJan 1, 7:01 AM

29.2%chance

253925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1555

214

Will Manifold offer any kind of paid subscription service before the end of 2025?

Jan 28, 2:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.9%chance

493627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2058

71

Will Congress pass a bill by the end of Q1 2025 that mandates customer service operations to be located inside the USA?

Nov 23, 3:14 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

19.93%chance

102912

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2004

499

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

52.77%chance

541909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

1067

If Trump is sentenced to jail time will the Secret Service go with him?

Aug 19, 12:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.35%chance

28923

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1689

1092

Will there be internet service on the Moon at the end of 2040?

Mar 28, 4:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.03%chance

21446

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

945

Will the United States Postal Service be Privatized before the end of 2032?

Dec 17, 2:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.21%chance

11384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

1014

Will a self-driving taxi service be cheaper than an Uber ride (with a driver) to the same location on 2025-12-31

Jan 2, 11:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

6290

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

929

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