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Prediction markets for Service Tax

Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service in California by the end of 2026?

Oct 12, 12:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.9%chance

9454630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7409

599

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.74%chance

125325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1818

107

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

332036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1534

660

Will Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028?

Jul 5, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.5%chance

131943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1319

758

Tax-free tipping results in >10% increase in real wages for service workers within 5 years of implementation?

Aug 30, 7:07 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

22.18%chance

71176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1873

534

Someone induces BlackPink to have babies to help South Korea's TFR by mid 2029

Nov 11, 9:30 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

25.25%chance

111173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1720

581

Will any city in the UK have a self-driving taxi service by the end of 2026?

Sep 2, 10:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

88.18%chance

26699

OptionVotes

NO

YES

273

37

Will a major city in Europe have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?

Jan 11, 5:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.13%chance

18584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

146

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

Will New York City have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?

Jan 11, 5:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.11%chance

13410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

158

Will California have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?

Jan 11, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.98%chance

583

OptionVotes

NO

YES

189

78

By 2031, will MIRI still require the services of a CPA or equivalent professional to prepare their 2030 tax form?

Jul 11, 4:43 PMJul 12, 6:59 AM

57.55%chance

651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

107

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