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Prediction markets for Service Tax

Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service in California by the end of 2026?

Oct 12, 12:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.92%chance

9454570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7337

600

Tesla will begin offering a truly driverless taxi service to the general public in at least one city in 2026

Jan 2, 7:45 AMJan 11, 7:59 AM

89.23%chance

132906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2879

347

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.94%chance

321986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

610

Will Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028?

Jul 5, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.5%chance

131943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1319

758

Tax-free tipping results in >10% increase in real wages for service workers within 5 years of implementation?

Aug 30, 7:07 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

22.18%chance

71176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1873

534

Someone induces BlackPink to have babies to help South Korea's TFR by mid 2029

Nov 11, 9:30 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

25.25%chance

111173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1720

581

Will a major city in Europe have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?

Jan 11, 5:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.13%chance

18584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

146

Will any city in the UK have a self-driving taxi service by the end of 2026?

Sep 2, 10:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.31%chance

24547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

81

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass (Prop 43)

Apr 25, 3:46 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

19.37%chance

4531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

841

Will New York City have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?

Jan 11, 5:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.94%chance

11350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

158

Will California have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?

Jan 11, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.01%chance

453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

85

By 2031, will MIRI still require the services of a CPA or equivalent professional to prepare their 2030 tax form?

Jul 11, 4:43 PMJul 12, 6:59 AM

57.55%chance

651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

107

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