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Prediction markets for Service Tax

Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service in California by the end of 2026?

Oct 12, 12:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.38%chance

9048926

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1387

895

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

954

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Tax-free tipping results in >10% increase in real wages for service workers within 5 years of implementation?

Aug 30, 7:07 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

22.18%chance

71176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1873

534

Tesla will begin offering a truly driverless taxi service to the general public in at least one city in 2026

Jan 2, 7:45 AMJan 11, 7:59 AM

74.41%chance

101029

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1705

586

Someone induces BlackPink to have babies to help South Korea's TFR by mid 2029

Nov 11, 9:30 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

22.03%chance

111012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1881

532

Will a major city in Europe have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?

Jan 11, 5:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.34%chance

15561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

156

Will any city in the UK have a self-driving taxi service by the end of 2026?

Sep 2, 10:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.2%chance

23537

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

88

Will New York City have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?

Jan 11, 5:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.94%chance

11350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

158

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

Will California have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?

Jan 11, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.01%chance

453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

85

By 2031, will MIRI still require the services of a CPA or equivalent professional to prepare their 2030 tax form?

Jul 11, 4:43 PMJul 12, 6:59 AM

63%chance

541

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

100

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