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Prediction markets for Service Tax

Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?

Jan 16, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.63%chance

595299204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1293

250

Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service in California by the end of 2026?

Oct 12, 12:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

5726682

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Tax-free tipping results in >10% increase in real wages for service workers within 5 years of implementation?

Aug 30, 7:07 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

22.18%chance

71176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1873

534

Zohran Mamdani wins NYC Mayoral general election mandate (50%)?

Jul 12, 2:59 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

49.73%chance

15850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

995

Will there be a self-driving taxi service in SF with a working desk seat and wifi by the end of 2025?

Dec 13, 9:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.32%chance

29689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1436

854

Will a major city in Europe have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?

Jan 11, 5:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

14339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

158

Will New York City have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?

Jan 11, 5:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.57%chance

10319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

168

Will any city in the UK have a self-driving taxi service by the end of 2026?

Sep 2, 10:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.08%chance

17291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Will a self-driving taxi service be cheaper than an Uber ride (with a driver) to the same location on 2025-12-31

Jan 2, 11:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

6290

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

919

Will California have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?

Jan 11, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.01%chance

453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

85

By 2031, will MIRI still require the services of a CPA or equivalent professional to prepare their 2030 tax form?

Jul 11, 4:43 PMJul 12, 6:59 AM

63%chance

541

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

100

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