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Prediction markets for Settings

Will a new 'Highest Air Temperature on Earth' record be set this decade

Apr 5, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.62%chance

13623838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1928

769

Will a human set foot on the moon whilst at least one human to have previously done so is still living?

Jul 5, 9:11 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

68%chance

916919

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1134

1040

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

226519

Will the next person to set foot on the moon be a woman?

Jul 14, 11:38 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

46.25%chance

366309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1332

524

Will a human will set foot on Mars by the end of 2047?

Mar 26, 1:07 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

74.05%chance

202844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

982

If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?

Nov 20, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.97%chance

19653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

985

984

Is the 20th Busy Beaver number independent of set theory?

Jan 31, 5:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.02%chance

18587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1179

734

[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?

Nov 9, 12:21 AMJan 2, 12:00 AM

23.98%chance

17523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

977

Will Coefficient Giving set up LLM agents with org accounts and a remote worker-like interface by 5/18/27?

May 20, 1:17 AMMay 18, 12:00 AM

63.18%chance

4511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1310

763

Will a human set foot on the dwarf planet Ceres before 2060?

Jan 17, 3:58 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.3%chance

12256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

983

Will the value of any of the cards printed in the Magic: 30th Anniversary set exceed the price of an MSRP sealed booster box by the end of 2027?

Oct 4, 5:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74%chance

10233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

930

Will the consistency of the First Order Theory beyond Higher Order Set Theory be determined by EOY 2050?

Jun 20, 3:17 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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