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Prediction markets for Settings

Will Elon Musk ever set foot on Mars?

Aug 4, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13%chance

8626523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1668

886

Will a new 'Highest Air Temperature on Earth' record be set this decade

Apr 5, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.62%chance

13623838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1928

769

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

216394

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

Before 2026

68

8

8

7

7

0

Will the next person to set foot on the moon be a woman?

Jul 14, 11:38 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

54.6%chance

336034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

659

Will a human set foot on the moon whilst at least one human to have previously done so is still living?

Jul 5, 9:11 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

34.62%chance

885524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1725

394

Will a human will set foot on Mars by the end of 2047?

Mar 26, 1:07 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

74.05%chance

202844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

982

If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?

Nov 20, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.84%chance

19648

OptionVotes

YES

NO

990

982

Is the 20th Busy Beaver number independent of set theory?

Jan 31, 5:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.02%chance

18587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1179

734

[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?

Nov 9, 12:21 AMJan 2, 12:00 AM

23.98%chance

17523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

977

Will a human set foot on the dwarf planet Ceres before 2060?

Jan 17, 3:58 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.3%chance

12256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

983

Will the value of any of the cards printed in the Magic: 30th Anniversary set exceed the price of an MSRP sealed booster box by the end of 2027?

Oct 4, 5:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74%chance

10233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

930

Will the consistency of the First Order Theory beyond Higher Order Set Theory be determined by EOY 2050?

Jun 20, 3:17 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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