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Prediction markets for Seven AI

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62%chance

266122270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4882

37

In what year will artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Jun 20, 4:02 AMJan 1, 5:00 PM

6418644

OptionProbability

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2045-2050

54

19

11

9

6

In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Sep 30, 7:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6713340

OptionProbability

2025-2029

2030-2049

2050-2074

2075-2099

Other

60

33

5

1

0

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

894

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.66%chance

10511871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3443

2500

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.23%chance

304131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1311

763

Will Artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2050?

Oct 1, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.4%chance

423497

OptionVotes

NO

YES

284

110

Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?

May 12, 3:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

243335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.18%chance

101345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

New Zealand Labour forms a government in 2026 without requiring support from Te Pāti Māori

Mar 21, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.79%chance

81263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will Phil Hellmuth reach two or more final tables at WSOP 2026? 👑🙄 (Also, check out my other propositions!)

May 30, 1:00 PMJul 6, 4:10 AM

45.25%chance

213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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