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Prediction markets for Seven AI

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28%chance

226102486

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4797

153

In what year will artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Jun 20, 4:02 AMJan 1, 5:00 PM

6116090

OptionProbability

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2045-2050

40

26

15

12

8

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

894

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.89%chance

10210773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3820

2023

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.05%chance

294126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1306

766

In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Sep 30, 7:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

513749

OptionProbability

2030-2049

2025-2029

2050-2074

2075-2099

Other

55

20

19

5

1

Will Artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2050?

Oct 1, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.4%chance

423497

OptionVotes

NO

YES

284

110

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.18%chance

101345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

New Zealand Labour forms a government in 2026 without requiring support from Te Pāti Māori

Mar 21, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.62%chance

5854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

571

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

[Carlini questions] Will we still use (slight modifications of) transformer-based LLMs we currently use

Mar 24, 2:17 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7109

OptionProbability

On Jan 1st 2027

On Jan 1st 2030

82

54

What will my A1C be at my next doctor's appointment?

Mar 19, 6:05 AMJun 1, 5:56 AM

377

OptionProbability

Between 5.6% and 6%

Between 6.1% and 6.5%

Less than or equal to 5%

Between 5.1% and 5.5%

Between 6.6% and 7%

Greater than or equal to 8.1%

Between 7.6% and 8%

Between 7.1% and 7.5%

Other

23

18

17

13

11

4

4

4

4

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