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Prediction markets for Seven AI

Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?

Sep 8, 10:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.54%chance

546314846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6290

2962

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.95%chance

363215294

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5063

2

All Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?

Sep 8, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

158109278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

In what year will artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Jun 20, 4:02 AMJan 1, 5:00 PM

8278300

OptionProbability

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2045-2050

98

1

1

0

0

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.96%chance

13054137

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19591

1253

Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?

Jun 1, 1:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97.49%chance

5112934

OptionVotes

NO

YES

623

16

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

894

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.23%chance

314143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1311

763

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Aug 1, 4:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

95.7%chance

101748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

505

34

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.18%chance

101345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

New Zealand Labour forms a government in 2026 without requiring support from Te Pāti Māori

Mar 21, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.8%chance

81310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1535

652

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

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