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Prediction markets for Seven AI

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32%chance

22099359

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4809

127

In what year will artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Jun 20, 4:02 AMJan 1, 5:00 PM

6015910

OptionProbability

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2045-2050

40

26

15

12

8

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

894

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

10110673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3917

1923

Will the AI bubble pop by X date?

Oct 26, 11:38 AMDec 31, 10:29 AM

638150

OptionProbability

By 3-31-2028

By 12-31-2027

By 9-30-2027

By 6-30-2027

By 3-31-2027

By 12-31-2026

By 9-30-2026

By 6-30-2026

By 3-31-2026

By 12-31-2025

59

39

32

26

23

20

12

8

5

0

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.24%chance

243861

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

919

In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Sep 30, 7:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

513749

OptionProbability

2030-2049

2025-2029

2050-2074

2075-2099

Other

55

20

19

5

1

Will Artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2050?

Oct 1, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84%chance

413487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

330

100

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2040?

Oct 1, 4:04 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70%chance

442933

OptionVotes

NO

YES

283

71

Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?

May 12, 3:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.96%chance

162932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.18%chance

101345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

Who will win the Montpellier ATP 2026?

Feb 3, 5:16 AMFeb 8, 11:59 PM

5489

OptionProbability

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Other

Tomas Machac

Flavio Cobolli

Tallon Griekspoor

Ugo Humbert

73

24

1

1

1

1

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