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Prediction markets for Severance

Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2026?

Oct 30, 9:24 PMJan 6, 10:59 PM

3.11%chance

7417038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4354

642

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

127430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7704

2333

Will Manchester City be severely punished by the Premier League?

Feb 4, 3:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.45%chance

546674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4980

1946

Will Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty at least as severe as life imprisonment with the possibility of parole before 2030?

Nov 14, 1:32 PMDec 31, 6:30 PM

6.86%chance

163309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2792

673

Which party will win the Presidency? Will the Ukraine sever the land bridge between 2025 and 2028 (inclusive)?

Mar 1, 6:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

112281

OptionProbability

Republicans, Ukraine doesn't take land bridge

Republicans, Ukraine takes land bridge

Democrats, Ukraine takes land bridge

Democrats, Ukraine doesn't take land bridge

78

20

1

1

Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years?

Nov 11, 7:37 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM

64.22%chance

401944

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1132

652

Will a brain-computer interface successfully restore speech in a patient with severe speech impairment?

Jul 29, 4:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.23%chance

5973

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1818

550

Will SpaceX will do orbital refilling several times in 2026 with Starship V3?

Sep 4, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.56%chance

16369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

60

Will a serious incident caused by AI happen that causes a severe public backlash (akin to Nuclear Fission) by 2040?

Mar 20, 9:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

66.2%chance

15304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

951

Can my 55-Year-Old Father, who Has a Severe Spinal Injury, Walk Within 12 Months?

Mar 6, 11:33 PMMar 6, 11:59 PM

53.17%chance

479

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

938

Will "I make several million dollars per year and h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 5, 11:07 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.13%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

991

Is The Pipe Plaza run by a frequent user of the Marioverse Discord Sever

Feb 23, 12:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Yes

No

It will stay Unknown throughout 2025

33

33

33

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