Severance News
Prediction markets for Severance
OptionProbability
100
100
87
82
82
81
78
67
67
67
64
62
62
59
57
48
45
41
37
37
36
35
34
27
21
20
20
19
14
13
13
11
11
9
8
4
0
0
0
Will Manchester City be severely punished by the Premier League?
Feb 4, 3:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
72.37%chance
6912914
OptionVotes
4996
1495
Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20.18%chance
158124
OptionVotes
8398
2142
Will I severely injure myself with my new supermagnets?
Jun 30, 11:25 PMJan 2, 12:21 AM
6.88%chance
326469
OptionVotes
3680
272
Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?
Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
19.76%chance
725643
OptionVotes
6181
6090
Will Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty at least as severe as life imprisonment with the possibility of parole before 2030?
Nov 14, 1:32 PMDec 31, 6:30 PM
7.43%chance
173440
OptionVotes
2614
687
A US state will ban or severely restrict pit bulls as a breed in 2026
Jan 7, 11:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.8%chance
72587
OptionVotes
3035
330
Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years?
Nov 11, 7:37 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM
61.12%chance
432059
OptionVotes
1169
590
OptionProbability
72
66
58
44
20
10
3
0
0
0
Will a serious incident caused by AI happen that causes a severe public backlash (akin to Nuclear Fission) by 2040?
Mar 20, 9:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
73.14%chance
16554
OptionVotes
1326
843
Will Andrew Tate be sentenced to several years in a British prison?
Aug 8, 8:17 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM
49.31%chance
788
OptionVotes
101
99
Will "I make several million dollars per year and h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jun 5, 11:07 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.13%chance
260
OptionVotes
1002
991

