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Prediction markets for Severance

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

127430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7704

2333

Will Manchester City be severely punished by the Premier League?

Feb 4, 3:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.57%chance

566814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5120

1904

Will I severely injure myself with my new supermagnets?

Jun 30, 11:25 PMJan 2, 12:21 AM

9.43%chance

315853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3099

323

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.76%chance

725643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6181

6090

Will Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty at least as severe as life imprisonment with the possibility of parole before 2030?

Nov 14, 1:32 PMDec 31, 6:30 PM

7.43%chance

173440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2614

687

A US state will ban or severely restrict pit bulls as a breed in 2026

Jan 7, 11:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.8%chance

72587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3035

330

Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years?

Nov 11, 7:37 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM

61.12%chance

432059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1169

590

Severance Season 3 first episode release date?

Mar 31, 4:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6629

OptionProbability

Before Jan 1, 2028

Before Oct 1, 2027

Before Jul 1, 2027

Before Apr 1, 2027

Before Jan 1, 2027

Before Jul 1, 2026

Before Oct 1, 2026

Before Apr 1, 2026

70

53

33

11

4

3

3

2

Severance S3E1 released before 2027?

Mar 26, 4:57 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

43.68%chance

16429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

Conditional on a large-scale nuclear exchange involving the continental United States, will my house be hit with an EMP severe enough to damage any of our electronics?

Oct 6, 5:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.41%chance

10347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

512

114

Will a serious incident caused by AI happen that causes a severe public backlash (akin to Nuclear Fission) by 2040?

Mar 20, 9:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

66.2%chance

15304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

951

Will "I make several million dollars per year and h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 5, 11:07 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.13%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

991

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