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Prediction markets for Severance

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

127430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7704

2333

Will Manchester City be severely punished by the Premier League?

Feb 4, 3:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.45%chance

546674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4980

1946

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.76%chance

725643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6181

6090

Will Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty at least as severe as life imprisonment with the possibility of parole before 2030?

Nov 14, 1:32 PMDec 31, 6:30 PM

7.26%chance

163436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2665

683

A US state will ban or severely restrict pit bulls as a breed in 2026

Jan 7, 11:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.8%chance

72587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3035

330

Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years?

Nov 11, 7:37 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM

64.22%chance

401944

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1132

652

Conditional on a large-scale nuclear exchange involving the continental United States, will my house be hit with an EMP severe enough to damage any of our electronics?

Oct 6, 5:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.41%chance

10347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

512

114

Will a serious incident caused by AI happen that causes a severe public backlash (akin to Nuclear Fission) by 2040?

Mar 20, 9:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

66.2%chance

15304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

951

How much would the S&P 500 change if Donald Trump died or became severely ill (enough to step down from office)?

Sep 2, 11:19 PMJan 20, 11:56 PM

5245

OptionProbability

Down 2% or more (≤ -2.0%)

Down 0.5% to 2% (-2.0% < x ≤ -0.5%)

Up 0.5% to 2% (+0.5% ≤ x < +2.0%)

Up 2% or more (≥ +2.0%)

Between -0.5% and 0.5% (-0.5% < x < +0.5%)

33

20

18

16

13

Will Mark S be elected mayor of Kier during the run of the TV show Severance?

May 10, 11:56 AMMay 11, 11:55 AM

12.55%chance

7166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

38

Can my 55-Year-Old Father, who Has a Severe Spinal Injury, Walk Within 12 Months?

Mar 6, 11:33 PMMar 6, 11:59 PM

53.87%chance

594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

925

Will "I make several million dollars per year and h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 5, 11:07 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.13%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

991

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