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Prediction markets for Severe Conditions Criteria

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

50.5%chance

442809

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

868

Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop

Dec 26, 7:45 PMJan 2, 7:54 AM

76.48%chance

502480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

803

Will bitcoin hit $200,000 or $20,000 in 2025?

May 5, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13%chance

102436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

39

Will Harvard be found liable for damages to Gino, conditional on a trial verdict being reached by 2026?

Aug 22, 11:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.44%chance

162213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1324

1240

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

If abiogenetically distinct alien life is discovered in the solar system before 2070, where will it be first discovered?

Dec 30, 8:52 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

171163

OptionProbability

Europa

Mars

Enceladus

Titan

Venus

Ganymede

Other

Ceres

Another location in the Jovian system

Another location in the Saturnian system

Uranus or one of its moons

Triton

Another location in the Neptunian system

Another dwarf planet or one of its moons

Pluto/Charon system

31

20

14

9

7

4

4

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Jun 22, 2:04 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

51.8%chance

11494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

India and Pakistan will go for second round of war in 2025 ?

Jun 8, 11:49 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.36%chance

9299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

294

34

[Metaculus] Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?

Oct 7, 1:36 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

65.16%chance

14291

OptionVotes

NO

YES

245

151

How late will I stay up in 2025? (Excludes time zone stuff, includes New Year’s Day 2026, see description)

Jan 1, 11:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6187

OptionProbability

4am

3am

5am

6am

7am

95

93

60

47

33

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