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Prediction markets for SF

Will SF homelessness be solved by 2040?

Jun 16, 5:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25%chance

5511099

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

890

Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?

Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

63.71%chance

596835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13221

7577

Will Waymo give public driverless rides on a freeway in the SF Bay Area by the end of 2025? [description]

Dec 10, 10:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80%chance

172495

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2000

500

Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from SF to the Palo Alto area or back by the end of 2025?

Mar 14, 8:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.49%chance

91590

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2099

477

Is Daniel Lurie going to make it to the end of his term as SF Mayor?

Nov 6, 7:11 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

85.74%chance

61563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2452

408

Will the SF to LA segment of the HSR be completed by 2040?

Mar 13, 6:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.54%chance

161045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

969

937

SF to have a 'ban restaurant fees' ballot prop in 2026?

Mar 9, 11:04 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

27.18%chance

5697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1637

611

Will there be a self-driving taxi service in SF with a working desk seat and wifi by the end of 2025?

Dec 13, 9:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.32%chance

29689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1436

854

Will psilocybin be legal to sell in SF by 2030?

Oct 14, 9:11 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

80%chance

20382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1254

901

Was the SF dog walker arson a hoax?

Jun 4, 10:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.88%chance

5293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1064

939

New SF Bay bridge any time through 2030

Sep 4, 9:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.59%chance

12248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

971

SF Air Quality Significantly improves in 2024

Mar 6, 2:58 AMSep 1, 6:59 AM

29.83%chance

13245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

938

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