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Prediction markets for Shape

Will more than 100,000 people live in a line-shaped city in Saudi Arabia in 2035? eg The Line

Jan 31, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.44%chance

4218048

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

901

Will humans land on a planet, dwarf planet, or moon large enough to be spheroid in shape OTHER than the Moon or Mars by the end of 2050?

Oct 15, 11:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29%chance

493876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1584

568

What is the largest area of a shape that can be maneuvered through a unit-width L-shaped corridor?

Feb 12, 5:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

74%chance

91003

OptionProbability

NO

YES

575

256

What is the shape of the universe? (Add answers!)

Mar 13, 5:25 PMMar 14, 5:59 AM

13297

OptionProbability

Flat

Other

Hypersphere

Hypertorus

40

37

15

8

Has the development of AI been notably (> 50%) shaped by the anthropic principle until May 2024?

May 6, 1:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.21%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

297

34

Will Luka Doncic be in shape at the start of the 2026 NBA season?

May 1, 6:20 AMOct 15, 11:59 PM

86.77%chance

4160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

256

39

Will someone craft a microplastic/plastic to be shaped exactly like Jose Luis Ricon (JLR!!!!!!!!!)by EOY 2040?

Aug 23, 6:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.93%chance

2103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

189

53

Will inference-time scaling improve the generation of images with correct geometric shapes? (in generative AI)

Dec 30, 2:10 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

73.43%chance

576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

60

How many of the top 100 companies will have a Square shaped Logo Icon by EOY 2028? (judged by CompaniesMarketCap)

Dec 9, 2:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

431

OptionProbability

Other

7

10

4

9

5

6

8

25

16

13

12

10

8

8

8

There is more success in shaping the future than predicting it. Evidence by 2034?

Jan 3, 7:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.09%chance

130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

31

Black hole spin-flip a cause of X-shaped radio galaxy?

Feb 3, 2:08 AMFeb 10, 1:59 AM

80%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

How significant was the Laken Riley case in shaping Republican immigration messaging during the 2024 election?

Jan 9, 2:25 AM

60

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