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Top stories

YouTube Faces Backlash Over Undisclosed Machine-Learning Edits to Shorts Videos

YouTube Faces Backlash Over Undisclosed Machine-Learning Edits to Shorts Videos

Authors

41

5 months ago

Will Smith Tour Video Draws Scrutiny Over Suspected AI-Generated Crowds

Will Smith Tour Video Draws Scrutiny Over Suspected AI-Generated Crowds

Authors

6

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Shorts

In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?

Aug 18, 10:56 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

10.42%chance

325654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2931

341

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.45%chance

282673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1346

743

Will Michael Burry actually get it right and profit >$1 Billion from a short position before 2030?

Nov 15, 2:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.86%chance

15719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

401

25

Will there be a platform that provides personalized short movies by 2030?

Mar 8, 6:15 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

79.57%chance

15560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

881

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Which short stories will be nominated for a Hugo award in 2026?

Jan 7, 2:55 AMApr 2, 6:59 AM

1258

OptionProbability

The Stone Played at Tengen - R.H. Wesley

Missing Helen - Tia Tashiro

Unfinished Architectures of the Human-Fae War - Caroline Yoachim

Bravado - Carrie Vaughn

Pollen - Anna Burdenko

The Cold Burns - Anne Wilkins

Whalesong - Daniel H. Wilson

The Nölmyna - David Erik Nelson

On an Unusual Kind of Spatially Distributed Haunting - Bogi Takács

Feast of Famine - Adam-Troy Castro

35

30

28

25

22

20

18

15

12

10

Will "Do confident short timelines make sense?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 16, 2:14 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.47%chance

384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

967

Will a stage at the 2026 Vuelta a Espana be cut short due to pro-Palestine protests?

Sep 15, 3:21 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

58.35%chance

352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

84

Will a stage at the 2026 Giro d'Italia be cut short due to pro-Palestine protests?

Sep 15, 3:20 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

41.41%chance

445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

Will "A short course on AGI safety from the GDM Ali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 29, 5:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will any major science fiction short story markets lift their categorical ban on writing with LLMs by 2030?

Jul 25, 6:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.17%chance

225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

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