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Prediction markets for Show Cause Order

Will Michael Bailey publish a fraudulent test of the gAyGP thesis by 2032?

Jan 27, 10:17 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

80%chance

11000

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2000

500

Will Manifold Staff rule that the POTUS is the President in this circumstance*?

Mar 11, 1:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.22%chance

3705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1205

830

Will Iran suffer an oil blockade, and will the regime fall this year?

Mar 29, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17505

OptionProbability

Oil blockade, regime stays

Oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime stays

83

12

2

2

Will "impact markets" distribute more than $10m of grant funding before 2030?

Nov 1, 10:00 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

73.01%chance

442

OptionVotes

NO

YES

245

182

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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