Show Cause Order News

How interesting are my different ideas for LessWrong posts, and when will I post them?

Jun 18, 2:24 PMDec 31, 2:03 PM

148605

OptionProbability

4c) Generalisation splitting, posted EoY 2026

8a) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, >50 upvotes

8c) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, posted EoY 2026

3b) A taxonomy of selection hacking, >3 comments

5b) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, >3 comments

6b) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, >3 comments

1c) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, posted EoY 2026

2b) Prediction markets for good, >3 comments

3a) A taxonomy of selection hacking, >50 upvotes

1b) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, >3 comments

2c) Prediction markets for good, posted EoY 2026

7b) DCI Concrete projects, >3 comments

5a) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, >50 upvotes

2a) Prediction markets for good, >50 upvotes

7a) DCI Concrete projects, >50 upvotes

4b) Generalisation splitting, >3 comments

1a) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, >50 upvotes

6a) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, >50 upvotes

5c) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, posted EoY 2026

3c) A taxonomy of selection hacking, posted EoY 2026

7c) DCI Concrete projects, posted EoY 2026

6c) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, posted EoY 2026

4a) Generalisation splitting, >50 upvotes

8b) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, >3 comments

100

Will Michael Bailey publish a fraudulent test of the gAyGP thesis by 2032?

Jan 27, 10:17 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

80%chance

11000

OptionVotes

YES

2000

500

Will Iran suffer an oil blockade, and will the regime fall this year?

Mar 29, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20872

OptionProbability

Oil blockade, regime stays

Oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime stays

If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?

Oct 7, 2:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.7%chance

11762

OptionVotes

YES

1415

707

If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?

Oct 7, 2:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.97%chance

9757

OptionVotes

YES

1351

572

Will Manifold Staff rule that the POTUS is the President in this circumstance*?

Mar 11, 1:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.1%chance

4707

OptionVotes

YES

1202

832

If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?

Oct 7, 2:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.23%chance

3560

OptionVotes

YES

1509

838

If Democrats win the House in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?

Oct 7, 2:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.35%chance

3210

OptionVotes

YES

1210

856

Will "impact markets" distribute more than $10m of grant funding before 2030?

Nov 1, 10:00 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

73.01%chance

442

OptionVotes

YES

245

182

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Show Cause Order News

Prediction markets for Show Cause Order

Prediction markets for Show Cause Order

Prediction markets for Show Cause Order

How interesting are my different ideas for LessWrong posts, and when will I post them?

Will Michael Bailey publish a fraudulent test of the gAyGP thesis by 2032?

Will Iran suffer an oil blockade, and will the regime fall this year?

If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?

If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?

Will Manifold Staff rule that the POTUS is the President in this circumstance*?

If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?

If Democrats win the House in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?

Will "impact markets" distribute more than $10m of grant funding before 2030?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

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