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Prediction markets for Shut Down

Will this question get 100k traders before Manifold shuts down?

Apr 18, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.42%chance

157995

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2540

394

Will the for-profit arm of OpenAI be shut down or otherwise separated from the non-profit arm before 01/01/2026?

Jul 18, 9:28 PMJan 1, 2:30 AM

15.85%chance

295788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

946

Will lighthaven be shut down in 2025 due to lack of funds?

Nov 5, 1:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.39%chance

135095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5335

187

Will meta announce Its shutting down its metaverse by the end of 2026?

Mar 7, 3:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.09%chance

854276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2020

1054

Will DOGE be officially shut down before 2026?

Jun 6, 6:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.17%chance

243310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1452

689

Will the Browser Company shut down by 2026?

Mar 21, 11:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.48%chance

252761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

944

Will a FOIA request reveal that Kalshi was primarily responsible for CFTC's decision to shut down PredictIt?

Aug 8, 6:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.03%chance

302086

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1508

848

Will tumblr shut down by the end of 2027?

Jan 10, 8:58 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

25%chance

182061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

882

Will any US state shut down all of its international airports for any length of time by end 2025?

Sep 7, 5:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.9%chance

311378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

978

Will Twitter (X) shut down before 2027

Dec 9, 3:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.94%chance

291094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1629

830

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4652

3621

Will Apollo Research (new AI evals org) shut down before 2028?

Jun 5, 11:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.79%chance

12296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

900

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