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Prediction markets for Signal

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

Feb 9, 10:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

40%chance

24919563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2714

1726

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.99%chance

5513610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20519

7234

Will this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes)

Feb 3, 12:36 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

94.06%chance

314891

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3493

594

Was Jeffrey Goldberg deliberately added to the "Houthi PC" Signal group chat?

Mar 24, 9:25 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

4.42%chance

224316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4653

215

Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.89%chance

184256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3019

331

Will intersections where self-driving cars can ignore traffic signals exist in the US by end of 2030?

Jun 29, 6:09 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.28%chance

231399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1997

812

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about data collected from people's brain signals?

Feb 9, 10:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

48.85%chance

15544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

873

By 2030, will the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab find signals of physics beyond the Standard Model?

Mar 18, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.61%chance

10320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

278

141

When will JS Signals reach Stage 3?

Oct 1, 7:13 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1206

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

Will not reach Stage 3 by the start of 2029

2025

25

25

25

25

1

Will Signal be revealed to have a major undisclosed vulnerability by 2035?

Sep 18, 3:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.15%chance

10138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Will a significant extra-terrestrial signal be detected by SETI before the end of the 22th century?

Apr 21, 8:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.13%chance

561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

84

Will "LessWrong Shows You Social Signals Before the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 28, 5:30 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.83%chance

356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

998

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