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Prediction markets for Signal

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

Feb 9, 10:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

40%chance

24919563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2714

1726

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.99%chance

5513610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20519

7234

Will this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes)

Feb 3, 12:36 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

94.06%chance

314891

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3493

594

Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.89%chance

184256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3019

331

Will intersections where self-driving cars can ignore traffic signals exist in the US by end of 2030?

Jun 29, 6:09 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.28%chance

231399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1997

812

Conditional on a second Wow! signal detection, what will be true?

Mar 3, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18620

OptionProbability

The signal has natural extraterrestrial origins

The signal has a bandwidth narrower than 10 kHz

The signal has artificial terrestrial origins

Signal has detectable modulation

The signal has a bandwidth wider than 10 kHz

Signal contains an encoded message

The signal has natural terrestrial origins

The signal uses a frequency in the waterhole region (1420 - 1662 MHz)

The signal has a frequency higher than 1662 MHz

Signal is detected by at least 3 different observatories

The signal has artificial extraterrestrial origins

The signal has a frequency lower than 1420 MHz

Signal contains an encoded message that uses the hashtag “#ChasingUFOs”

79

57

52

46

44

44

43

38

35

34

22

16

12

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about data collected from people's brain signals?

Feb 9, 10:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

48.85%chance

15544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

873

When will JS Signals reach Stage 3?

Oct 1, 7:13 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1206

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

Will not reach Stage 3 by the start of 2029

2025

25

25

25

25

1

Will "LessWrong Shows You Social Signals Before the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 28, 5:30 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.03%chance

4206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

976

Will Intentshunal Spelling and Grammer Mistakes as Form of Antitechnology Virtue Signaling Beome a Thing?

Feb 21, 4:28 PMMay 29, 4:59 AM

18.21%chance

684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

116

Will a significant extra-terrestrial signal be detected by SETI before the end of the 22th century?

Apr 21, 8:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.13%chance

561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

84

Will Animal Signal run for more than 20 chapters in Weekly Shonen Jump?

Jun 8, 7:17 AMDec 8, 7:15 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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