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Prediction markets for Significant Digital Platforms

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

954

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2031?

Jan 13, 11:11 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

92.57%chance

342218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2019

836

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2030?

Jan 15, 9:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

90.81%chance

342133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

959

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2027?

Jan 17, 5:33 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

75.61%chance

351625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

994

947

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2029?

Jan 16, 1:24 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

85.97%chance

281437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1260

927

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2028?

Jan 16, 10:43 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

80.88%chance

251027

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1136

898

Credible evidence that Iran was involved in Bondi Beach shooting?

Dec 31, 8:02 AMJul 1, 6:52 AM

4.28%chance

16468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

473

21

Manifold have a central bank and I am chairman by 2030?

Jun 16, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.85%chance

6253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

287

35

College Board Website crash when releasing scores?

May 10, 10:03 PMMay 10, 9:58 PM

17.2%chance

9233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

46

Manifold have a central bank and banking apparatus by 2030?

Jun 16, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.28%chance

7143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

187

54

Will a fully AI-generated song reach Billboard Top 10 by 2027?

Dec 18, 3:20 AMJan 30, 3:59 PM

350

OptionProbability

Jan-Jun 2027

Jul-Dec 2026

Jan-Jun 2026

Jul-Dec 2027

32

31

18

18

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Feb 16, 11:53 PM

270

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