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Prediction markets for Significant Digital Platforms

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.74%chance

125325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1818

107

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2027?

Jan 17, 5:33 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

34%chance

422919

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

240

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2031?

Jan 13, 11:11 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

93.05%chance

362370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2144

826

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2030?

Jan 15, 9:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

87.94%chance

352209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

990

826

Will Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028?

Jul 5, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.5%chance

131943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1319

758

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2029?

Jan 16, 1:24 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

82.1%chance

291487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

977

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2028?

Jan 16, 10:43 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

72.78%chance

251127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

798

Manifold have a central bank and I am chairman by 2030?

Jun 16, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.85%chance

6253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

287

35

Will a fully AI-generated song reach Billboard Top 10 by 2027?

Dec 18, 3:20 AMJan 30, 3:59 PM

6240

OptionProbability

Jan-Jun 2027

Jul-Dec 2027

Jul-Dec 2026

Jan-Jun 2026

41

40

10

9

Manifold have a central bank and banking apparatus by 2030?

Jun 16, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.28%chance

7143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

187

54

Will A2O Lite's next song achieve a perfect all-kill?

Oct 26, 8:52 PMDec 31, 8:51 PM

33.08%chance

5105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Will a book titled "Arylcyclohexylamines I Have Known And Loved" be published by EOY2031?

Apr 25, 2:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.93%chance

253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

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