SIM News

Brittany Simon Stock

Oct 26, 9:20 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

1511657070

OptionProbability

YES

5247

325

Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025?

Nov 1, 7:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.53%chance

3616196

OptionVotes

YES

10009

9931

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

31.82%chance

296204

OptionVotes

YES

14631

6838

Will a major dating app use LLMs to simulate conversations by Valentine's Day 2026?

Feb 14, 1:02 AMFeb 15, 7:59 AM

46.76%chance

202135

OptionVotes

YES

10868

9165

Will the Hobbit cozy life sim Tales of the Shire get a score of 77 or above on OpenCritic?

Dec 30, 9:05 AMAug 13, 6:59 AM

3.94%chance

11801

OptionVotes

YES

884

Will microplastics become an easter egg/feature in any video game (eg a sims clone) by EOY2029?

Sep 21, 5:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.53%chance

1320

OptionVotes

YES

416

Will MissCriskle’s Twilight - Sims 2 be completed before the end of 2025?

Apr 13, 12:18 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.09%chance

2260

OptionVotes

YES

380

Will Ken Sim be re-elected mayor of Vancouver in 2026?

Nov 10, 5:22 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

33.35%chance

9211

OptionVotes

YES

257

Will dwarves in dwarf fortress try to "break out" of their sim by accessing and using data from outside of DF?

Mar 26, 7:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.74%chance

7178

OptionVotes

YES

315

What will be true about the forthcoming The Sims movie?

Sep 23, 7:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5125

OptionProbability

Simlish will be spoken at some point

It will be rated Rotten on RottenTomatoes one week after release

There will be a blur over "adult activities"

Ghost shown on screen

There will be a swimming pool without a ladder (thus trapping the character in the pool)

An exclamation point will appear above someone’s head

There’s a freezer bunny at some point

“Leisure Day” will be referenced in the dialogue

Katy Perry will be involved in some way (producer, actor, on the soundtrack)

It will be released in 2025

A reference is made to Rosebud or Citizen Kane

Somebody dies from fire

Will a semaglutide analogue be included in a Sims-like game by EOY 2029?

Jan 22, 9:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.48%chance

6115

OptionVotes

YES

150

Will a "The Sims"like game allow you to import pictures of real life people into characters in the game by EOY 2026?

Oct 21, 9:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.31%chance

224

OptionVotes

YES

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Prediction markets for SIM

Prediction markets for SIM

Prediction markets for SIM

Brittany Simon Stock

Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025?

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Will a major dating app use LLMs to simulate conversations by Valentine's Day 2026?

Will the Hobbit cozy life sim Tales of the Shire get a score of 77 or above on OpenCritic?

Will microplastics become an easter egg/feature in any video game (eg a sims clone) by EOY2029?

Will MissCriskle’s Twilight - Sims 2 be completed before the end of 2025?

Will Ken Sim be re-elected mayor of Vancouver in 2026?

Will dwarves in dwarf fortress try to "break out" of their sim by accessing and using data from *outside* of DF?

What will be true about the forthcoming The Sims movie?

Will a semaglutide analogue be included in a Sims-like game by EOY 2029?

Will a "The Sims"like game allow you to import pictures of real life people into characters in the game by EOY 2026?

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Will dwarves in dwarf fortress try to "break out" of their sim by accessing and using data from outside of DF?