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SIMA News
Prediction markets for SIMA
Prediction markets for SIMA
When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?
Sep 17, 11:10 PM
Dec 31, 11:43 PM
2
130
Option
Probability
2029
2027
49
39
Will we have biography of >50 of the rationalists/EAs/TESCREALS written by Chen Shou, Sima Qian, or Plutarch by EOY2050?
Jan 4, 9:15 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
59.02%
chance
1
20
Option
Votes
NO
YES
120
83
Will we have bios of >20 of the Thiel Fellows by EOY2050?
Jan 4, 9:16 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
59.02%
chance
1
20
Option
Votes
NO
YES
120
83
Who is a better leader: Sima Zhong or Donald J. Trump?
Sep 26, 5:42 PM
4
0
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