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Prediction markets for Simple One

[5000 Mana prize] What is the best "Human-solvable, machine-hard puzzle"

Nov 22, 4:37 AMFeb 8, 4:19 AM

2476721

OptionProbability

Other

Spatial CAPTCHA puzzles

Take a photo, split it into a 100x100 grid, scramble the pieces, and ask user to reconstruct the original

[[Place holder]]

85

9

5

1

Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?

Oct 20, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.22%chance

636269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1665

643

Will the Collatz Conjecture (3x+1 problem) be solved before 2030?

Dec 27, 7:11 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12.61%chance

645283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1479

895

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2026?

Jan 3, 12:26 AMJan 1, 12:23 AM

65.82%chance

455116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

721

If I offer someone on a plane $20 to take off their mask for the remainder of the flight, will they accept?

Mar 13, 5:32 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.25%chance

713252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1802

902

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.07%chance

193036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3171

316

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:10 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77%chance

152159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

683

555

Will anyone find me a decent web archival program? [M$20,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:17 PMSep 29, 5:14 PM

35.62%chance

92054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1344

744

Will there be a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026?

Jan 10, 1:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.52%chance

212049

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1586

631

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.62%chance

362030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

784

Will cybernetic body modification technologies become commonplace in developed countries by 2077?

Dec 21, 10:38 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

77.61%chance

26777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1163

922

Will Dome (YC startup) succeed before 2027?

Oct 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.31%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

839

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