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Prediction markets for Simple One

Will the Collatz Conjecture (3x+1 problem) be solved before 2030?

Dec 27, 7:11 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.05%chance

729029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

931

Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?

Oct 20, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.33%chance

666670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

874

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:10 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89%chance

234935

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2060

771

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.04%chance

264557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3638

276

If I offer someone on a plane $20 to take off their mask for the remainder of the flight, will they accept?

Mar 13, 5:32 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.25%chance

713252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1802

902

Will there be a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026?

Jan 10, 1:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.77%chance

232215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1418

706

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

884

Will anyone find me a decent web archival program? [M$20,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:17 PMSep 29, 5:14 PM

37.81%chance

92116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

780

Will cybernetic body modification technologies become commonplace in developed countries by 2077?

Dec 21, 10:38 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

78.59%chance

27827

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1213

908

Will Dome (YC startup) succeed before 2027?

Oct 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.31%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

839

Will "The best simple argument for Pausing AI?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 2, 3:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.23%chance

3373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1359

951

Will "Empowerment, corrigibility, etc. are simple a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 13, 8:16 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.11%chance

4105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

768

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