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Prediction markets for SimpleBench

In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard?

Jul 6, 10:34 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3711324

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

2030

2031

2032

65

15

5

1

1

1

1

1

Will an LLM score >=95% on SimpleBench before 2028?

Mar 4, 12:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.83%chance

12315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

63

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