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Top stories

Blockstream Launches Simplicity, Bringing Smart Contracts to Bitcoin via Liquid

Blockstream Launches Simplicity, Bringing Smart Contracts to Bitcoin via Liquid

Authors

12

1 day ago

Prediction markets for Simplicity

How long (in months) will patio11’s sabbatical be?

Jun 8, 6:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3520932

Will Unity stock be up in 2 years?

Sep 12, 8:13 PMSep 13, 6:59 AM

19%chance

6118831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1988

556

Which well-known scientist will Eliezer Yudkowsky have a long recorded conversation with about AI risk, before 2026?

Nov 12, 7:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

255111

OptionProbability

Timothy Gowers

Michael Nielsen

Geoffrey Hinton

Daniel Hillis

Steven Pinker

Andrej Karpathy

Noam Shazeer

David Deutsch

François Chollet

Sean Carroll

George Hotz

Dario Amodei

Yann LeCun

Ben Goertzel

Neil deGrasse Tyson

@Krantz

23

21

20

20

16

15

11

10

10

10

8

7

7

6

6

1

Will Neuralink be available for people without a disability in the US by 2035?

Mar 21, 4:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.01%chance

652875

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1516

485

Depending on whether Trump wins the election, will Bezos become even richer by 2029?

Oct 29, 11:49 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4470

OptionProbability

Trump wins, Bezos becomes richer

Trump wins, Bezos becomes poorer

Trump loses, Bezos becomes richer

Trump loses, Bezos becomes poorer

77

20

2

1

Over the next ten years, will the pay gap for Americans with college degrees and those without increase or decrease?

Apr 29, 3:45 PMMay 7, 3:59 AM

12332

OptionProbability

Increase

Decrease

60

40

Conditional upon an invasion of Niger, will Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum be restored to de facto control of Niger?

Aug 4, 11:09 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

33.49%chance

9267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

286

149

Will another accidental liftoff occur before 2035?

Mar 30, 5:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.18%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

872

How many months until the first human commits suicide due to fears from AI?

May 27, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.01%chance

5108

OptionProbability

YES

NO

372

306

Will John Green live to see AFC Wimbledon make it to the Premier League?

Apr 8, 8:44 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

28.82%chance

465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

80

I spend what portion of summer at home?

Apr 16, 11:05 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will the English Premier League still exist in 2150/51 w/ 100 million or more views* per season globally?

Sep 5, 11:12 PMSep 1, 10:59 PM

52.36%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 4, 2025
Aug 4, 2025
Software
Blockchains
Tech
Blockstream Launches Simplicity, Bringing Smart Contracts to Bitcoin via Liquid
Authors
12
1 day ago

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