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Prediction markets for Simplicity

How many weeks will the US–Iran war last?

Mar 7, 9:10 AMApr 8, 9:59 PM

328154774

OptionProbability

Above 1 week

Above 2 weeks (Mar 14)

Above 3 weeks (Mar 21)

Above 4 weeks (Mar 28)

Above 6 weeks (Apr 11)

Above 9 weeks (May 2)

Above 13 weeks (May 30)

Above 20 weeks (Jul 18)

Above 35 weeks (Oct 31)

Above 55 weeks (Mar 20, 2027)

Above 80 weeks (Sep 11, 2027)

Above 110 weeks (Apr 8, 2028)

100

100

100

98

93

77

64

45

36

29

17

15

How long (in months) will patio11’s sabbatical be?

Jun 8, 6:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3524702

OptionProbability

60-63

48-51

51-54

45-48

54-57

57-60

39-42

42-45

36-39

18-21

21-24

24-27

27-30

30-33

33-36

18

14

14

12

10

10

8

8

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:10 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89%chance

223985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2060

771

Will Neuralink be available for people without a disability in the US by 2035?

Mar 21, 4:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.94%chance

652900

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1491

500

Will humans land on [eg Mars] without Starship before 2055?

Oct 15, 3:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.82%chance

61661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2011

497

Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?

Aug 23, 2:18 PMOct 3, 11:59 PM

15.23%chance

31360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2406

432

Depending on whether Trump wins the election, will Bezos become even richer by 2029?

Oct 29, 11:49 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4470

OptionProbability

Trump wins, Bezos becomes richer

Trump wins, Bezos becomes poorer

Trump loses, Bezos becomes richer

Trump loses, Bezos becomes poorer

77

20

2

1

Over the next ten years, will the pay gap for Americans with college degrees and those without increase or decrease?

Apr 29, 3:45 PMMay 7, 3:59 AM

12382

OptionProbability

Increase

Decrease

57

43

Apple to un-hide terminal by EOY 2026

Jan 17, 8:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.41%chance

7360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

354

28

Apple to un-hide terminal by EOY 2027

Feb 19, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.43%chance

2210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

310

32

Will another accidental liftoff occur before 2035?

Mar 30, 5:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.18%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

872

Will the English Premier League still exist in 2150/51 w/ 100 million or more views* per season globally?

Sep 5, 11:12 PMSep 1, 10:59 PM

52.36%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

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