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Prediction markets for Simplicity

How long (in months) will patio11’s sabbatical be?

Jun 8, 6:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3524949

OptionProbability

60-63

48-51

51-54

45-48

54-57

57-60

42-45

39-42

18-21

21-24

24-27

27-30

30-33

33-36

36-39

19

15

15

12

10

10

9

8

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

135579

OptionProbability

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

31

6

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:10 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89%chance

234935

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2060

771

Will Neuralink be available for people without a disability in the US by 2035?

Mar 21, 4:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.94%chance

652900

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1491

500

Will humans land on [eg Mars] without Starship before 2055?

Oct 15, 3:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.14%chance

71666

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1991

502

Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?

Aug 23, 2:18 PMOct 3, 11:59 PM

15.23%chance

31360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2406

432

Over the next ten years, will the pay gap for Americans with college degrees and those without increase or decrease?

Apr 29, 3:45 PMMay 7, 3:59 AM

12382

OptionProbability

Increase

Decrease

57

43

When will the first fully unmanned coast to coast truck freight trip be completed in the US?

Jan 13, 5:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5377

OptionProbability

2028

2032 or later or never

2027

2029

2030

2031

2026

24

21

16

12

12

10

6

Apple to un-hide terminal by EOY 2026

Jan 17, 8:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.41%chance

7360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

354

28

before 2035, will anyone give a UN speech in toki pona?

May 18, 3:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.65%chance

4225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

325

31

Will another accidental liftoff occur before 2035?

Mar 30, 5:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.55%chance

5172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

861

Will there be a fourth season of I Think You Should Leave?

Jul 19, 1:18 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

85.78%chance

4128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

186

54

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