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Prediction markets for Simplicity

How long (in months) will patio11’s sabbatical be?

Jun 8, 6:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3524702

OptionProbability

60-63

48-51

51-54

45-48

54-57

57-60

39-42

42-45

36-39

18-21

21-24

24-27

27-30

30-33

33-36

18

14

14

12

10

10

8

8

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Neuralink be available for people without a disability in the US by 2035?

Mar 21, 4:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.01%chance

652875

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1516

485

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:10 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77%chance

152159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

683

555

Will humans land on [eg Mars] without Starship before 2055?

Oct 15, 3:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.82%chance

61661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2011

497

Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?

Aug 23, 2:18 PMOct 3, 11:59 PM

15.23%chance

31360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2406

432

The national debt of America will be lower on this date in 2028

Nov 6, 3:39 AMNov 6, 5:59 AM

2.64%chance

15939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

607

16

Over the next ten years, will the pay gap for Americans with college degrees and those without increase or decrease?

Apr 29, 3:45 PMMay 7, 3:59 AM

12382

OptionProbability

Increase

Decrease

57

43

Apple to un-hide terminal by EOY 2026

Jan 17, 8:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.41%chance

7360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

354

28

Will another accidental liftoff occur before 2035?

Mar 30, 5:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.18%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

872

How many months until the first human commits suicide due to fears from AI?

May 27, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.01%chance

5108

OptionProbability

YES

NO

372

306

Will John Green live to see AFC Wimbledon make it to the Premier League?

Apr 8, 8:44 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

29.35%chance

566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

182

81

Will the English Premier League still exist in 2150/51 w/ 100 million or more views* per season globally?

Sep 5, 11:12 PMSep 1, 10:59 PM

52.36%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

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