Simplify News

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1418767

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2024

The first humanoid to set foot on Mars will be...

Mar 29, 1:38 PMApr 5, 6:59 AM

484907

OptionProbability

a robot

a human

AI generated text will be permitted without restriction at all 10 of the highest ranked universities by the end of the decade (<2030)

Dec 24, 8:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.78%chance

533458

OptionVotes

YES

2273

788

When will a Manifold question or comment be posted by someone in space?

Feb 27, 7:23 AMJan 2, 10:59 PM

161986

OptionProbability

In 2033 or earlier

In 2032 or earlier

In 2031 or earlier

In 2030 or earlier

In 2029 or earlier

In 2028 or earlier

In 2027 or earlier

In 2026 or earlier

In 2024

In 2025 or earlier

Will an attention tax be issued by Brazil's government before 2030?

Feb 18, 10:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

6.83%chance

3879

OptionVotes

YES

369

On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?

Dec 15, 10:20 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.45%chance

14494

OptionVotes

YES

1204

892

AI for AI 2: By when will there be an AI that can do "senior-level" ML engineering?

Jul 3, 6:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4201

OptionProbability

2028-01-01

2029-01-01

2027-01-01

Later than that/never

2026-01-01

2025-01-01

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

YES

1013

986

What Chinese orthography will Singapore use in 2050?

Apr 4, 2:28 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

6180

OptionProbability

Simplified

Something substantially different

Traditional

Entity Framework Core v11 contains SQL MERGE support?

Jul 5, 4:31 PMNov 30, 5:31 PM

29%chance

382

OptionVotes

YES

156

Conditional on Mass Unemployment due to AI in the US, which happens first?

Aug 8, 3:07 AMDec 31, 6:17 AM

569

OptionProbability

Universal Basic Income

Universal Basic Compute

Will clinical trials find Xenon inhalation to be safe and effective in humans as a treatment for Alzheimer's?

Jan 16, 4:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

331

OptionProbability

Safe but not effective.

Safety trial successful but efficacy trial never initiated or efficacy trial ends for any reason without releasing results.

Safety trial ends for any reason without releasing results.

Other

Safe and effective.

Not safe.

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When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

The first humanoid to set foot on Mars will be...

AI generated text will be permitted without restriction at all 10 of the highest ranked universities by the end of the decade (<2030)

When will a Manifold question or comment be posted by someone in space?

Will an attention tax be issued by Brazil's government before 2030?

On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?

AI for AI 2: By when will there be an AI that can do "senior-level" ML engineering?

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

What Chinese orthography will Singapore use in 2050?

Entity Framework Core v11 contains SQL MERGE support?

Conditional on Mass Unemployment due to AI in the US, which happens first?

Will clinical trials find Xenon inhalation to be safe and effective in humans as a treatment for Alzheimer's?

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