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Prediction markets for Simplify

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1011851

OptionProbability

2026

2030 or later

2027

2025

2028

2029

2024

20

20

17

15

13

13

1

Looking for Growth UK's National Priority Infrastructure Bill becomes law by December 31st 2025

Jan 18, 3:37 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

1.92%chance

56403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7139

140

The first humanoid to set foot on Mars will be...

Mar 29, 1:38 PMApr 5, 6:59 AM

484750

OptionProbability

a robot

a human

56

44

AI generated text will be permitted without restriction at all 10 of the highest ranked universities by the end of the decade (<2030)

Dec 24, 8:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.74%chance

523457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2285

787

When will a Manifold question or comment be posted by someone in space?

Feb 27, 7:23 AMJan 2, 10:59 PM

161986

OptionProbability

In 2033 or earlier

In 2032 or earlier

In 2031 or earlier

In 2030 or earlier

In 2029 or earlier

In 2028 or earlier

In 2027 or earlier

In 2026 or earlier

In 2025 or earlier

In 2024

29

26

23

20

17

14

10

7

3

0

Will an attention tax be issued by Brazil's government before 2030?

Feb 18, 10:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

7.33%chance

2865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

355

28

Will the Magic Arena card pool contain Panglacial Wurm before 2026?

Feb 13, 11:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.97%chance

16681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

926

On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?

Dec 15, 10:20 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

31.89%chance

14444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

915

AI for AI 2: By when will there be an AI that can do "senior-level" ML engineering?

Jul 3, 6:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4201

OptionProbability

2028-01-01

2029-01-01

2027-01-01

Later than that/never

2026-01-01

2025-01-01

72

72

50

29

22

1

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

What Chinese orthography will Singapore use in 2050?

Apr 4, 2:28 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

6180

OptionProbability

Simplified

Something substantially different

Traditional

85

11

4

Which of the proposed 2025 NYC Charter Amendments will pass?

Jul 22, 5:16 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

140

OptionProbability

Question 4: Digitize the City Map

Question 1: Fast Track Affordable Housing

Question 2: Simplify Review of Modest Projects

Question 3: Establish an Affordable Housing Appeals Board

Question 5: Move Local Elections to Presidential Years

76

50

50

50

50

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