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Prediction markets for Simplify

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1518776

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2024

25

20

19

16

16

4

1

The first humanoid to set foot on Mars will be...

Mar 29, 1:38 PMApr 5, 6:59 AM

484907

OptionProbability

a robot

a human

64

36

AI generated text will be permitted without restriction at all 10 of the highest ranked universities by the end of the decade (<2030)

Dec 24, 8:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.78%chance

533458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2273

788

When will a Manifold question or comment be posted by someone in space?

Feb 27, 7:23 AMJan 2, 10:59 PM

171988

OptionProbability

In 2033 or earlier

In 2032 or earlier

In 2031 or earlier

In 2030 or earlier

In 2029 or earlier

In 2028 or earlier

In 2027 or earlier

In 2026 or earlier

In 2024

In 2025 or earlier

29

26

23

20

17

14

10

7

0

0

[Wheel of Time] In the show, will Znmevz Gnvz or n Sbefnxra va qvfthvfr?

Sep 20, 12:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.01%chance

5735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

657

9

On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?

Dec 15, 10:20 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

29.62%chance

15584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1234

879

AI for AI 2: By when will there be an AI that can do "senior-level" ML engineering?

Jul 3, 6:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4201

OptionProbability

2028-01-01

2029-01-01

2027-01-01

Later than that/never

2026-01-01

2025-01-01

72

72

50

29

22

1

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

What Chinese orthography will Singapore use in 2050?

Apr 4, 2:28 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

6180

OptionProbability

Simplified

Something substantially different

Traditional

85

11

4

Will Android succeed in making it harder to side-load apps

May 14, 2:12 PMAug 31, 4:00 PM

85.81%chance

8177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

246

41

Entity Framework Core v11 contains SQL MERGE support?

Jul 5, 4:31 PMNov 30, 5:31 PM

29%chance

382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Conditional on Mass Unemployment due to AI in the US, which happens first?

Aug 8, 3:07 AMDec 31, 6:17 AM

569

OptionProbability

Universal Basic Income

Universal Basic Compute

72

34

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