Single Soon News

How many female presidential nominees will lose before one wins?

Aug 7, 5:14 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5210308

OptionProbability

Other

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Sep 12, 1:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

113329

OptionProbability

1+ days

30+ days

180+ days

365+ days

730+ days

1825+ days

0 days

100

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

how many oly proposals does it take to get a gf

Jun 27, 10:54 PMDec 31, 11:49 PM

162396

OptionProbability

5-9

50+

20-24

0-4

10-14

15-19

25-29

30-39

40-49

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Jan 12, 12:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

121409

OptionProbability

Mass AI-driven job displacement event

A government declaration/statement (any country)

Reports about software

Reports about financial activity

Report about sociological observations

Report about economic observations

AI-related academic achievement

Attack on military target

Attack on civilian target

AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat

A statement from an individual (human)

AI-related fake news

AI-related political movement (pro or anti)

A private company declaration/statement (any company)

Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)

Military activity / posture change

An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target

AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event

An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event

A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service

AI-designed cyberweapon

AI makes prediction about future event

Open source model release

Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model

Reports of aerial devices/machines

Reports of market activity

AI-related corruption scandal

AI-related theft

A new war between nation states

AI-related resignation

Reports of activity in online communities

Reports of activity on internet-connected servers

Reports of activity in open source software

A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency

Reports of activity on internet media distribution platforms

People receiving messages (text / phone calls / whatsapp / ...)

AI-related diplomacy

Reports about consumer activity

Reports about identity theft

Reports of activity in religious communities

AI-related media (movie/song/book ...)

Reports about industrial activity

Reports about physical machines

Reports about criminal activity

AI-related competition achievement

A viral meme

An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3

AI-related Internet shutdown in some country

AI-related cyberattack

Conventional weapons attack on AI infrastructure / supply chain

A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)

AI-related sex scandal

A piece of viral AI-generated media that has a strong/unexpected effect on large numbers of people (~psychological)

AI parasitism / Addictive-Persuasive Agent

Attack on Taiwan

AI-related terrorist attack

AI-related assassination

AI-designed pathogen

AI drug discovery

AI material discovery

Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances

AI-related astronomical event / observation / analysis (can also include satellites)

Reports of underwater activity

Reports of activity on blockchain networks

Reports of activity in academic communities

Publication of a research paper (or pre-print / blog post / poster / twitter thread / ... -- about research-related topic)

Reports of activity in online video games

Reports about people getting scammed

AI-related cult

AI system demonstrates general robotic control

AI causes significant stock market event

Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation

AI-related archaeology

Major AI safety incident or accident

AI system makes scientific breakthrough

AI system solves major unsolved math problem

An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer

AI-related nuclear weapon use

Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?

Mar 24, 5:16 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

56.41%chance

181372

OptionVotes

YES

1318

626

If most of the economy becomes automated without us all dying, will Eliezer Yudkowsky admit that he was wrong?

May 15, 12:35 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.79%chance

22396

OptionVotes

YES

109

Will Microsoft replace all C/C++ code with rust by 2030?

Dec 23, 3:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.74%chance

8388

OptionVotes

YES

405

[Carlini questions] Chance one can purchase off-the-shelf robot for under 100k$ that can do manipulation

Mar 24, 1:47 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9303

OptionProbability

By 2030

By 2027

Will Russia be added to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist before 2050?

Oct 16, 11:20 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

50.88%chance

6195

OptionVotes

YES

1018

983

Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?

Jan 30, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.32%chance

691

OptionVotes

YES

611

589

What will be the first neutron star radius measured, in km?

Jul 14, 7:07 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

39.5%chance

556

OptionProbability

YES

265

222

Single Soon News

Prediction markets for Single Soon

Prediction markets for Single Soon

Prediction markets for Single Soon

How many female presidential nominees will lose before one wins?

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

how many oly proposals does it take to get a gf

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?

If most of the economy becomes automated without us all dying, will Eliezer Yudkowsky admit that he was wrong?

Will Microsoft replace all C/C++ code with rust by 2030?

[Carlini questions] Chance one can purchase off-the-shelf robot for under 100k$ that can do manipulation

Will Russia be added to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist before 2050?

Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?

What will be the first neutron star radius measured, in km?

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