Singles Day News

YES

Anthropic or Meta release a new model

Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%

Sam Altman still CEO through end of month

large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement

noam chomsky alive until end of month

trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times

nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain

NASDAQ hits an all time high

dick cheney still alive at end of month

at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it

american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran

earthquake 7.0+ magnitude

nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once

usa bombs or missle strikes syria

twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)

$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month

web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month

Israeli startup acquired at a price higher than $1b

major tech company merger/acquisition announced

An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced

Volcano dormant for half a year erupts

earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates

trump leaves usa at least once

usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon

spacex launches 15 or more rockets

usa troops enter syria

china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death

American airstrike or drone strike or missile strike on Mexico

usa troops enter lebanon

New nominal US$ market capitalization record for the largest company in the history of the world

ukraine russia ceasefire

starship launch

a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement

Bitcoin hits 100K

New Half-Life game announced

bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day

another indictment or charges announced against trump

YES

Feb 2026

Jan 2026

Mar 2026

Apr 2026

May 2026

Dec 2026 or later/never

Jun 2026

Jul 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Nov 2026

Isaac likes experimenting

You'd say you're more of a dog person than a cat person

You've been in a desert once

You regret ever making WvM (feel free to n/a if you'd rather not say)

You have ever looked through list of a Manifold user's bets to determine their position on some question

You've been vegetarian for >1 continuous year

(if you're not married) you've thought about marrying your current partner (if you're in a relationship)

You like listening to violin more than you like listening to piano

You're older than me (I'm 23)

you consider your partner to be your best friend as well

You're younger than 30

You think it's fine for minors to date adults

You consider yourself part of the rationality sphere

You think of yourself as a dog person more than a cat person

You seem to enjoy indie stuff more than the average person does

you've defected on some sort of deal you made with another person

The first book you remember reading in your life has an animal as its main character

You tend to wear the same outfit every day.

You think the effective altruism philosophy is good but the community overall is ineffective in implementing that philosophy

You've spent a day in which you read a (single) book (or similar) for 10+ hrs

You're an effective altruist

You are qorrenqial

You've read the CFAR Handbook

You've held a gun in your hands before

You've fired a gun at a target before

You've jumped out of a plane

You have attended some program or camp organised by MIRI

You've knowingly misresolved a market once even though you didn't get called out for it

You've been to a nightclub

You've passed out from drinking alcohol

You like to eat out more than you like to cook and eat

You've worked with LED strip lights

You've wondered what it'd be like to have a different name

*You* have more than 6 stuffed animals

You know >4 programming langauges

You know >= 3 natural languages (in at least one of reading, speaking, or hearing understanding)

You've felt desires to purchase a car with mana

You have a political belief that'd cause at least one close friend to cut ties if they knew about it

You wish you spent significantly less time on Manifold

You sleep more during 7am->7pm hours than during 7pm->7am hours

You prefer if these answers start with "You" than with "isaac"

You feel you're the smartest member of your close family (mother, father, siblings)

You have thought about shooting lasers from your eyes at traffic lights

You have once made a joke about your name's similarity with Martin Luther King Jr.

You think the effective altruism community is ineffective at PR and image management

YES

NO

YES

Sam Altman still CEO through end of month

noam chomsky alive until end of month

Anthropic or Meta release a new model

at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it

nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain

starship launch

$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month

web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month

large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement

Member of U.S Congress resigns, dies, or is removed from office

spacex launches 15 or more rockets

earthquake 7.0+ magnitude

major tech company merger/acquisition announced

An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced

trump leaves usa at least once

american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates

earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher

usa troops enter syria

usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon

usa bombs or missle strikes syria

Volcano dormant for half a year erupts

American airstrike or drone strike or missile strike on Mexico

New Half-Life game announced

ukraine russia ceasefire

winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced

usa troops enter lebanon

a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement

bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day

trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times

china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death

NO

Add tooltips that explain how everything works

Let a user filter to markets in which they have positions

If the user enters a date, it should be treated as a range from the beginning of that day to the end, not just the single millisecond at which that day begins.

Make the choice of which markets to store locally smarter, so it won't accidentally cross the 5MB localStorage limit.

Add proper inputs for dates and drop downs for categories

Multi-buy in multiple-choice markets

Add a quickbet button where the user inputs their expected probability, and it calculates and places the appropriate Kelly bet size based on their portfolio.

Add a tiny graph/sparkline on each row to show how the market has changed recently

Generate RSS feeds for user-specified queries (like https://hnrss.org/newest?points=100)

Add support for arbitraging similar markets/answers, either treating them as summing to 1 or specifying a target relative change percentage.

Make a userscript that overrides Manifold's default search with Isaac's search

Add an option to display each answer on a multiple-choice market as its own row in the search results.

A column to display the market price X amount of time ago, input by the user

Allow users to define more than one dashboard, and share them via URL with other people

Option to show dates in a standardized day/hour/minute format that all lines up

Add a filter to only show markets the user hasn't seen before.

Make the search boxes look nicer so they're not just a giant pile of input boxes. Lay them out in columns or hide ones the user isn't using or something.

Add an OR conjunction for search terms, so people can search for something like "question includes 'altman' OR 'OpenAI'"

Open markets in new tab by default

Add a "concise mode", which removes all extraneous text from the table, like the percent sign, M$ sign, etc. and aligns them all nicely

Add fuzzy searching that can catch typos and synonyms

Let people resize columns, or add intelligent column resizing

Let people see the limit orders of a selected user in each market

Dark Mode

Add support for other platforms. Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.

Add tiny arrows in each column header as a visual indicator that they can click there to sort the column

Let people see the position of a selected user in each market

Add reminders to check back on a market after some time

Add direct links to user profile and/or group pages, maybe accessible by shift-clicking on them.

Check to see if any of the code has changed upon page load, and if so wipe the cached market data and reload it.

Let people see the profit of a selected user in each market

Fix the graphical issues that cause fields to unfocus and dropdown menus to disappear each time new data is loaded

Add some way for clicking on a group or creator to wipe the rest of the search. Maybe shift-click? Or maybe it should be the default?

Add more complex diff detection so that the client can catch up on what it missed if it loses internet for a few minutes, or at least tell the user it's out of date

Add hotkeys to make trading and searching even faster

Add more sensible step values to the numeric input fields

Allow people to place long-term limit orders

Make the "last updated time" field include edits to the market description

Somehow convince Manifold to waive the API fee if bets are placed via Predictionary

Make it look not-terrible (this suggestion is for aesthetics only, not functionally-useful layout/display features)

Allow users to see whether a multiple-choice market is select-one or select-multiple

Display who can add answers on a multiple-choice market

Give it a better name than Predictionary. (Suggestions welcome.)

Add support for Polymarket front-running. (https://medium.com/@eightyhi/blockchain-based-amms-arent-fit-for-prediction-markets-bbe6ad7a33ca)

Make a row flash when its probability changes

Add a bulk bet button that can bet on all markets in the dashboard

Fix the bug that causes some resolved markets to not be marked as closed

Add a way to view/query detailed historical market data

Add a one-click feedback form on the page itself

Fix links to Manifold markets (currently all links go to "/{username}/undefined")

Add a filter/sort by recently subsidized

Add an option to change the height of each row such that it's proportional to the width of the interval between the previous market's close time and the next market's close time, so distance down the page represents time in the future.

Fix the bug that causes numeric markets to be displayed as though they were regular percentage markets.

NO