Singles Day News

[AUS] A Driver DNF due to reliability problems (e.g., engine, power unit etc.)

[AUS] Red flag during qualifying

[AUS] At least 3 DNF

[AUS] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

[TEST] Cadillac sets the slowest lap time of the whole testing session

[AUS] P1 & P2 by same team

[AUS] winner has no WDC title

[AUS] Audi reaches Q2 (Qualifying)

[AUS] Ferrari finishes on the podium

[AUS] An Audi driver finishes in top 10 (race)

[AUS] Verstappen finishes in top 10 (race)

[CHN] Yellow flag first lap Sprint

[CHN] Yellow flag first lap main race

[CHN] Ferrari on the podium of the sprint race

[CHN] Bearman scores points in the sprint race (top 8)

[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main qualifying

[CHN] VSC or Physical Safety car during the sprint race

[CHN] A Ferrari is P1 at the end of lap 1 (main race)

[CHN] Physical Safety Car during the main race

[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race

[CHN] Bearman scores points in the main race (top 10)

[CHN] 5 or more DNF in the main race

[JAP] Physical Safety Car during the race

[JAP] Yellow flag first lap

[JAP] Bearman reaches Q3

[JAP] Both Aston Martins DNF

[JAP] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[JAP] Red flag in qualifying

Leave it open for the upcoming GP

[JAP] 5 or more DNF (including DNS)

[JAP] Team other than Mercedes or Ferrari gets a podium

[JAP] Team other than Mercedes gets pole position in qualifying

[AUS] Physical Safety Car during the race

[AUS] Yellow flag first lap

[AUS] Both Aston Martins qualify in the last row (21st and 22nd)

[TEST] Cadillac in the top 5 of the timesheets on any single day

[TEST] Ferrari sets the most laps during the whole testing session

[TEST] Mercedes sets the fastest lap time of the whole testing session

[TEST] First red flag caused by a driver error/spin etc. (not mechanical failure)

[AUS] Both Aston Martins retire after formation lap before race start

[AUS] The car finishing on P5 gets lapped

[AUS] Both Aston Martins don't finish the race

[AUS] Hadjar finishes on the podium

[CHN] Ferrari qualifies 1st or 2nd in the sprint qualifying (at least one driver)

[CHN] Red flag during sprint qualifying

[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race

[CHN] Gasly scores points in the sprint race (top 8)

[CHN] An Audi reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)

[CHN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race

[CHN] An Audi scores points in the main race (top 10)

[CHN] A Red Bull Racing driver finishes in top 5 (main race)

NO

Apr 2026

May 2026

Dec 2026 or later/never

Jun 2026

Mar 2026

Jul 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Nov 2026

Jan 2026

Feb 2026

american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran

earthquake 7.0+ magnitude

nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain

Contrapoints video release

at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it

Sam Altman still CEO through end of month

earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher

Volcano dormant for half a year erupts

Russians kill 5 or more Ukrainian civilians in a single day

$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month

noam chomsky alive until end of month

Anthropic or Meta release a new model

spacex launches 15 or more rockets

large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement

major tech company merger/acquisition announced

Russia kills 20 or more Ukrainian civilians in a single day

An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced

trump leaves usa at least once

Member of U.S Congress resigns, dies, or is removed from office

American airstrike or drone strike or missile strike on Mexico

An incumbent U.S State governor dies in office

usa bombs or missle strikes syria

usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon

a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement

web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month

winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced

usa troops enter syria

china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death

usa troops enter lebanon

trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times

ukraine russia ceasefire

New Half-Life game announced

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates

starship launch

bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day

Sam Altman still CEO through end of month

large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement

american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran

Anthropic or Meta release a new model

earthquake 7.0+ magnitude

at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it

$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month

noam chomsky alive until end of month

nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain

A tornado in the USA rated EF4 or greater

trump leaves usa at least once

web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month

Volcano dormant for half a year erupts

starship launch

spacex launches 15 or more rockets

usa bombs or missle strikes syria

earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher

A sitting U.S. State or Territory governor dies in office

major tech company merger/acquisition announced

trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates

usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon

usa troops enter lebanon

usa troops enter syria

ukraine russia ceasefire

a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement

china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death

An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced

American airstrike or drone strike or missile strike on Mexico

Member of U.S Congress resigns, dies, or is removed from office

New Half-Life game announced

Donald Trump dies

winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced

YES

Sam Altman still CEO through end of month

noam chomsky alive until end of month

Iran fires a missile from within its country, that then lands and explodes in another country.

large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement

Anthropic or Meta release a new model

american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran

earthquake 7.0+ magnitude

at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it

A tornado in the USA rated EF4 or greater

trump leaves usa at least once

nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain

$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month

usa bombs or missle strikes syria

usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon

Member of U.S Congress resigns, dies, or is removed from office

starship launch

major tech company merger/acquisition announced

earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher

spacex launches 15 or more rockets

American airstrike or drone strike or missile strike on Mexico

An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates

ukraine russia ceasefire

Donald Trump dies

A sitting U.S. State or Territory governor dies in office

bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day

web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month

a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement

New Hbomberguy video

winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced

Isaac likes experimenting

You'd say you're more of a dog person than a cat person

You've been in a desert once

You regret ever making WvM (feel free to n/a if you'd rather not say)

You have ever looked through list of a Manifold user's bets to determine their position on some question

You've been vegetarian for >1 continuous year

(if you're not married) you've thought about marrying your current partner (if you're in a relationship)

You like listening to violin more than you like listening to piano

You're older than me (I'm 23)

you consider your partner to be your best friend as well

You're younger than 30

You think it's fine for minors to date adults

You consider yourself part of the rationality sphere

You think of yourself as a dog person more than a cat person

You seem to enjoy indie stuff more than the average person does

you've defected on some sort of deal you made with another person

The first book you remember reading in your life has an animal as its main character

You tend to wear the same outfit every day.

You think the effective altruism philosophy is good but the community overall is ineffective in implementing that philosophy

You've spent a day in which you read a (single) book (or similar) for 10+ hrs

You're an effective altruist

You are qorrenqial

You've read the CFAR Handbook

You've held a gun in your hands before

You've fired a gun at a target before

You've jumped out of a plane

You have attended some program or camp organised by MIRI

You've knowingly misresolved a market once even though you didn't get called out for it

You've been to a nightclub

You've passed out from drinking alcohol

You like to eat out more than you like to cook and eat

You've worked with LED strip lights

You've wondered what it'd be like to have a different name

*You* have more than 6 stuffed animals

You know >4 programming langauges

You know >= 3 natural languages (in at least one of reading, speaking, or hearing understanding)

You've felt desires to purchase a car with mana

You have a political belief that'd cause at least one close friend to cut ties if they knew about it

You wish you spent significantly less time on Manifold

You sleep more during 7am->7pm hours than during 7pm->7am hours

You prefer if these answers start with "You" than with "isaac"

You feel you're the smartest member of your close family (mother, father, siblings)

You have thought about shooting lasers from your eyes at traffic lights

You have once made a joke about your name's similarity with Martin Luther King Jr.

You think the effective altruism community is ineffective at PR and image management

NO

Add tooltips that explain how everything works

Let a user filter to markets in which they have positions

If the user enters a date, it should be treated as a range from the beginning of that day to the end, not just the single millisecond at which that day begins.

Make the choice of which markets to store locally smarter, so it won't accidentally cross the 5MB localStorage limit.

Add proper inputs for dates and drop downs for categories

Multi-buy in multiple-choice markets

Add a quickbet button where the user inputs their expected probability, and it calculates and places the appropriate Kelly bet size based on their portfolio.

Add a tiny graph/sparkline on each row to show how the market has changed recently

Generate RSS feeds for user-specified queries (like https://hnrss.org/newest?points=100)

Add support for arbitraging similar markets/answers, either treating them as summing to 1 or specifying a target relative change percentage.

Make a userscript that overrides Manifold's default search with Isaac's search

Add an option to display each answer on a multiple-choice market as its own row in the search results.

A column to display the market price X amount of time ago, input by the user

Allow users to define more than one dashboard, and share them via URL with other people

Option to show dates in a standardized day/hour/minute format that all lines up

Add a filter to only show markets the user hasn't seen before.

Make the search boxes look nicer so they're not just a giant pile of input boxes. Lay them out in columns or hide ones the user isn't using or something.

Add an OR conjunction for search terms, so people can search for something like "question includes 'altman' OR 'OpenAI'"

Open markets in new tab by default

Add a "concise mode", which removes all extraneous text from the table, like the percent sign, M$ sign, etc. and aligns them all nicely

Add fuzzy searching that can catch typos and synonyms

Let people resize columns, or add intelligent column resizing

Let people see the limit orders of a selected user in each market

Dark Mode

Add support for other platforms. Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.

Add tiny arrows in each column header as a visual indicator that they can click there to sort the column

Let people see the position of a selected user in each market

Add reminders to check back on a market after some time

Add direct links to user profile and/or group pages, maybe accessible by shift-clicking on them.

Check to see if any of the code has changed upon page load, and if so wipe the cached market data and reload it.

Let people see the profit of a selected user in each market

Fix the graphical issues that cause fields to unfocus and dropdown menus to disappear each time new data is loaded

Add some way for clicking on a group or creator to wipe the rest of the search. Maybe shift-click? Or maybe it should be the default?

Add more complex diff detection so that the client can catch up on what it missed if it loses internet for a few minutes, or at least tell the user it's out of date

Add hotkeys to make trading and searching even faster

Add more sensible step values to the numeric input fields

Allow people to place long-term limit orders

Make the "last updated time" field include edits to the market description

Somehow convince Manifold to waive the API fee if bets are placed via Predictionary

Make it look not-terrible (this suggestion is for aesthetics only, not functionally-useful layout/display features)

Allow users to see whether a multiple-choice market is select-one or select-multiple

Display who can add answers on a multiple-choice market

Give it a better name than Predictionary. (Suggestions welcome.)

Add support for Polymarket front-running. (https://medium.com/@eightyhi/blockchain-based-amms-arent-fit-for-prediction-markets-bbe6ad7a33ca)

Make a row flash when its probability changes

Add a bulk bet button that can bet on all markets in the dashboard

Fix the bug that causes some resolved markets to not be marked as closed

Add a way to view/query detailed historical market data

Add a one-click feedback form on the page itself

Fix links to Manifold markets (currently all links go to "/{username}/undefined")

Add a filter/sort by recently subsidized

Add an option to change the height of each row such that it's proportional to the width of the interval between the previous market's close time and the next market's close time, so distance down the page represents time in the future.

Fix the bug that causes numeric markets to be displayed as though they were regular percentage markets.

YES

NO