Singles Day News

[AUS] A Driver DNF due to reliability problems (e.g., engine, power unit etc.)

[AUS] Red flag during qualifying

[AUS] At least 3 DNF

[AUS] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

[TEST] Cadillac sets the slowest lap time of the whole testing session

[AUS] P1 & P2 by same team

[AUS] winner has no WDC title

[AUS] Audi reaches Q2 (Qualifying)

[AUS] Ferrari finishes on the podium

[AUS] An Audi driver finishes in top 10 (race)

[AUS] Verstappen finishes in top 10 (race)

[CHN] Yellow flag first lap Sprint

[CHN] Yellow flag first lap main race

[CHN] Ferrari on the podium of the sprint race

[CHN] Bearman scores points in the sprint race (top 8)

[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main qualifying

[CHN] VSC or Physical Safety car during the sprint race

[CHN] A Ferrari is P1 at the end of lap 1 (main race)

[CHN] Physical Safety Car during the main race

[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race

[CHN] Bearman scores points in the main race (top 10)

[CHN] 5 or more DNF in the main race

[JAP] Physical Safety Car during the race

[JAP] Team other than Mercedes or Ferrari gets a podium

[JAP] Antonelli wins the race

[MIA] Non-Mercedes pole position in sprint qualifying

[MIA] McLaren 1-2 in the sprint race

[MIA] Leclerc podium in the sprint race

[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the main race

[MIA] A Mercedes finishes outside the top 5 in the sprint race

[MIA] Gasly reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)

[MIA] Antonelli wins the main race

[MIA] A McLaren on the podium in the main race

[MIA] Race start time is changed or cancelled due to weather conditions

[CAN] Three different teams on the podium (main race)

[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint qualifying

[CAN] Red flag during sprint qualifying

[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the sprint race

[CAN] 5 or more DNS/DNF in the main race

[CAN] An Alpine finishes in top 10 in the main race

[CAN] Hamilton finishes on podium in the main race

[CAN] Hamilton outfinishes Verstappen (main race)

[MON] Pole Sitter wins the race

[MON] Red flag during qualifying

[MON] Red flag during the race

[MON] A driver overtakes their teammate on track

[MON] Safety car (non-virtual) during the race

[MON] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds

[MON] Three different teams on the podium

[MON] Hadjar finishes in top 5 (race)

[MON] A Williams scores points (top 10)

[MON] 3 or more DNF/DNS

[BAR] An Audi reaches Q3

[BAR] Hamilton on the podium

[BAR] Verstappen finishes in top 5

[BAR] 3 or more DNF/DNS

[BAR] At least one driver that finishes in top 5 does 3 pit stops (or more)

[BAR] At least one podium finisher from team other than Ferrari or Mercedes

[AUT] Qualifying lap invalidated due to track limits

[AUT] Both Ferraris in top 5 in qualifying

[AUT] Physical safety car during the race

[AUT] At least 2 drivers that finish in the top 5 did 3 or more pit stops during the race

[AUT] Both Ferraris on the podium (race)

[AUT] Antonelli finishes ahead of Russel (race)

[AUT] Both Racing Bulls finish in top 10 (race)

[AUT] Gasly finishes on top 10 (race)

[AUT] An Audi finishes in top 10 (race)

[AUT] 5 or more DNF/DNS

[AUT] Russel and Antonelli collide during the race

Leave it open for the upcoming GP

[AUT] Wet or intermediate tyres used during qual or race

[AUS] Physical Safety Car during the race

[AUS] Yellow flag first lap

[AUS] Both Aston Martins qualify in the last row (21st and 22nd)

[TEST] Cadillac in the top 5 of the timesheets on any single day

[TEST] Ferrari sets the most laps during the whole testing session

[TEST] Mercedes sets the fastest lap time of the whole testing session

[TEST] First red flag caused by a driver error/spin etc. (not mechanical failure)

[AUS] Both Aston Martins retire after formation lap before race start

[AUS] The car finishing on P5 gets lapped

[AUS] Both Aston Martins don't finish the race

[AUS] Hadjar finishes on the podium

[CHN] Ferrari qualifies 1st or 2nd in the sprint qualifying (at least one driver)

[CHN] Red flag during sprint qualifying

[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race

[CHN] Gasly scores points in the sprint race (top 8)

[CHN] An Audi reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)

[CHN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race

[CHN] An Audi scores points in the main race (top 10)

[CHN] A Red Bull Racing driver finishes in top 5 (main race)

[CHN] Winner wins by 11.00 seconds or more?

[JAP] Both Aston Martins DNF

[JAP] Yellow flag first lap

[JAP] Red flag in qualifying

[JAP] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[JAP] Team other than Mercedes gets pole position in qualifying

[JAP] Bearman reaches Q3

[JAP] 5 or more DNF (including DNS)

[JAP] Linblad scores points (top 10)

[JAP] Bortoleto scores points (top 10)

[JAP] Hadjar finishes ahead of Verstappen (face)

[JAP] A McLaren retires/DNS due to reliability issues

[JAP] Verstappen on the podium

[MIA] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying

[MIA] Red flag during sprint qualifying

[MIA] Colapinto scores points in the sprint race

[MIA] Hadjar scores points in the sprint race

[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the sprint race

[MIA] McLaren pole position in qualifying for the main race

[MIA] Red flag during qualifying for the main race

[MIA] A Mercedes qualifies outside the top 5 (main race qualifying)

[MIA] Hadjar doesn't reach Q3 (main race qualifying)

[MIA] Verstappen on the Podium in the main race

[MIA] 5 or more DNF/DNS

[MIA] Both Ferrari finish in top 6 in the main race

[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the main race

[CAN] An Audi reaches SQ3 (Sprint Qualifying)

[CAN] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying

[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race

[CAN] A Ferrari on the podium in the sprint race

[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the sprint race

[CAN] Yellow flag in the first lap of the sprint race

[CAN] Sainz scores points in the sprint race (top 8)

[CAN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race

[CAN] Red flag during qualifying for the main race

[CAN] An Audi reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)

[CAN] A Williams reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)

[CAN] Yellow flag first lap of the main race

[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race

[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the main race

[CAN] Linblad scores points in the main race

[CAN] An Audi finishes in top 10 in the main race

[CAN] Oscar Piastri Finishes on Podium in the Main Race

[CAN] English broadcoast shows Colapinto's onboard camera view in the main race

[CAN] 7 or more DNS/DNF in the main race

[CAN] Piastri scores points in the main race

[MON] 5 or more on-track overtakes

[MON] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[MON] Wet or intermediate tyres used during the race

[MON] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

[BAR] Physical Safety Car during the race

[BAR] Yellow flag in the first lap of the race

[BAR] Mercedes driver wins

[BAR] Both McLaren qualify in top 4

[BAR] Antonelli pole position in qualifying

[BAR] Hulkenberg scores points (top 10)

[BAR] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race

[BAR] Both Mercedes drivers on podium

[AUT] Red flag during qualifying

[AUT] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[AUT] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying

[AUT] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds

Dec 2026 or later/never

Nov 2026

Oct 2026

May 2026

Jun 2026

Jul 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Jan 2026

Feb 2026

Mar 2026

YES

earthquake 7.0+ magnitude

trump leaves usa at least once

Anthropic or Meta release a new model

american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran

Volcano dormant for half a year erupts

MANIFEST

nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain

noam chomsky alive until end of month

By the end of June KOSPI will be worth over 8,500 points

major tech company merger/acquisition announced

$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month

at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it

A treasure from The Secret is found (12treasures.com)

BBC News publishes a headline that simultaneously mentions 2 or more out of: missiles, measles, mussels, muscles, or mistletoe

usa bombs or missle strikes syria

Member of U.S Congress resigns, dies, or is removed from office

web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month

ukraine russia ceasefire

a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement

American airstrike or drone strike or missile strike on Mexico

usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon

china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death

An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced

A sitting U.S. State or Territory governor dies in office

winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates

starship launch

bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day

spacex launches 15 or more rockets

New Half-Life game announced

Donald Trump dies

YES

Sam Altman still CEO through end of month

noam chomsky alive until end of month

starship launch

$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month

trump leaves usa at least once

large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement

earthquake 7.0+ magnitude

web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month

Gold above $ 4,273 (see comment)

Gold above $ 4,722 (see comment)

Anthropic or Meta release a new model

at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it

nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain

american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran

Trump issues a pardon or commutation

major tech company merger/acquisition announced

usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon

ukraine russia ceasefire

spacex launches 15 or more rockets

An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced

earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher

Member of U.S Congress resigns, dies, or is removed from office

winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced

A sitting U.S. State or Territory governor dies in office

An incumbent U.S. State governor dies in office

bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day

china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death

usa bombs or missle strikes syria

a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement

Isaac likes experimenting

You'd say you're more of a dog person than a cat person

You've been in a desert once

You regret ever making WvM (feel free to n/a if you'd rather not say)

You have ever looked through list of a Manifold user's bets to determine their position on some question

You've been vegetarian for >1 continuous year

(if you're not married) you've thought about marrying your current partner (if you're in a relationship)

You like listening to violin more than you like listening to piano

You're older than me (I'm 23)

you consider your partner to be your best friend as well

You're younger than 30

You think it's fine for minors to date adults

You consider yourself part of the rationality sphere

You think of yourself as a dog person more than a cat person

You seem to enjoy indie stuff more than the average person does

you've defected on some sort of deal you made with another person

The first book you remember reading in your life has an animal as its main character

You tend to wear the same outfit every day.

You think the effective altruism philosophy is good but the community overall is ineffective in implementing that philosophy

You've spent a day in which you read a (single) book (or similar) for 10+ hrs

You're an effective altruist

You are qorrenqial

You've read the CFAR Handbook

You've held a gun in your hands before

You've fired a gun at a target before

You've jumped out of a plane

You have attended some program or camp organised by MIRI

You've knowingly misresolved a market once even though you didn't get called out for it

You've been to a nightclub

You've passed out from drinking alcohol

You like to eat out more than you like to cook and eat

You've worked with LED strip lights

You've wondered what it'd be like to have a different name

*You* have more than 6 stuffed animals

You know >4 programming langauges

You know >= 3 natural languages (in at least one of reading, speaking, or hearing understanding)

You've felt desires to purchase a car with mana

You have a political belief that'd cause at least one close friend to cut ties if they knew about it

You wish you spent significantly less time on Manifold

You sleep more during 7am->7pm hours than during 7pm->7am hours

You prefer if these answers start with "You" than with "isaac"

You feel you're the smartest member of your close family (mother, father, siblings)

You have thought about shooting lasers from your eyes at traffic lights

You have once made a joke about your name's similarity with Martin Luther King Jr.

You think the effective altruism community is ineffective at PR and image management

NO

Add tooltips that explain how everything works

Let a user filter to markets in which they have positions

If the user enters a date, it should be treated as a range from the beginning of that day to the end, not just the single millisecond at which that day begins.

Make the choice of which markets to store locally smarter, so it won't accidentally cross the 5MB localStorage limit.

Add proper inputs for dates and drop downs for categories

Multi-buy in multiple-choice markets

Add a quickbet button where the user inputs their expected probability, and it calculates and places the appropriate Kelly bet size based on their portfolio.

Add a tiny graph/sparkline on each row to show how the market has changed recently

Generate RSS feeds for user-specified queries (like https://hnrss.org/newest?points=100)

Add support for arbitraging similar markets/answers, either treating them as summing to 1 or specifying a target relative change percentage.

Make a userscript that overrides Manifold's default search with Isaac's search

Add an option to display each answer on a multiple-choice market as its own row in the search results.

A column to display the market price X amount of time ago, input by the user

Allow users to define more than one dashboard, and share them via URL with other people

Option to show dates in a standardized day/hour/minute format that all lines up

Add a filter to only show markets the user hasn't seen before.

Make the search boxes look nicer so they're not just a giant pile of input boxes. Lay them out in columns or hide ones the user isn't using or something.

Add an OR conjunction for search terms, so people can search for something like "question includes 'altman' OR 'OpenAI'"

Open markets in new tab by default

Add a "concise mode", which removes all extraneous text from the table, like the percent sign, M$ sign, etc. and aligns them all nicely

Add fuzzy searching that can catch typos and synonyms

Let people resize columns, or add intelligent column resizing

Let people see the limit orders of a selected user in each market

Dark Mode

Add support for other platforms. Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.

Add tiny arrows in each column header as a visual indicator that they can click there to sort the column

Let people see the position of a selected user in each market

Add reminders to check back on a market after some time

Add direct links to user profile and/or group pages, maybe accessible by shift-clicking on them.

Check to see if any of the code has changed upon page load, and if so wipe the cached market data and reload it.

Let people see the profit of a selected user in each market

Fix the graphical issues that cause fields to unfocus and dropdown menus to disappear each time new data is loaded

Add some way for clicking on a group or creator to wipe the rest of the search. Maybe shift-click? Or maybe it should be the default?

Add more complex diff detection so that the client can catch up on what it missed if it loses internet for a few minutes, or at least tell the user it's out of date

Add hotkeys to make trading and searching even faster

Add more sensible step values to the numeric input fields

Allow people to place long-term limit orders

Make the "last updated time" field include edits to the market description

Somehow convince Manifold to waive the API fee if bets are placed via Predictionary

Make it look not-terrible (this suggestion is for aesthetics only, not functionally-useful layout/display features)

Allow users to see whether a multiple-choice market is select-one or select-multiple

Display who can add answers on a multiple-choice market

Give it a better name than Predictionary. (Suggestions welcome.)

Add support for Polymarket front-running. (https://medium.com/@eightyhi/blockchain-based-amms-arent-fit-for-prediction-markets-bbe6ad7a33ca)

Make a row flash when its probability changes

Add a bulk bet button that can bet on all markets in the dashboard

Fix the bug that causes some resolved markets to not be marked as closed

Add a way to view/query detailed historical market data

Add a one-click feedback form on the page itself

Fix links to Manifold markets (currently all links go to "/{username}/undefined")

Add a filter/sort by recently subsidized

Add an option to change the height of each row such that it's proportional to the width of the interval between the previous market's close time and the next market's close time, so distance down the page represents time in the future.

Fix the bug that causes numeric markets to be displayed as though they were regular percentage markets.

NO

NO

Under 30h

30h to under 40h

40h to under 50h

50h to under 60h

60h to under 70h

70h to under 80h

80h to under 90h

90h to under 100h

100h or more