Singularity News

How many years until the singularity? (Since December 2022)

Dec 7, 9:28 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

9.38%chance

516806

OptionProbability

YES

2064

925

By the end of 2026, John Wentworth still believes that "The Plan" has a better than 50/50 chance of working before the singularity.

Dec 2, 5:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.91%chance

303435

OptionVotes

YES

1601

694

Singularity by 2030?

Apr 3, 1:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

15.82%chance

593148

OptionVotes

YES

1377

964

AI Singularity (props)

Mar 7, 12:48 PMMar 7, 12:48 PM

112783

OptionProbability

The top Elo score on the EQ-Bench Creative Writing v3 leaderboard exceeds 2000 before 2027-01-01

At least three major AI labs (xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind) release public multi-LLM agentic reasoning models before 2027-01-01

xAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Anthropic makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

OpenAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Google DeepMind makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

An international agreement signed by governments of at least the United States and China, restricting frontier AI research to mitigate extinction risks, before 2027-01-01

Will Germany give up paper correspondence before the technological singularity happens?

May 22, 10:42 AMOct 29, 9:59 PM

18.22%chance

182717

OptionVotes

YES

2119

472

Will there be a software-only singularity? (ACX, AI 2027 #3)

Apr 8, 7:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.2%chance

10628

OptionVotes

YES

1357

737

Will the trans community agree on a single, grammatically-singular, gender-neutral pronoun to use before 2035?

Mar 29, 8:47 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

8.79%chance

21622

OptionVotes

YES

1289

943

If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?

Feb 2, 1:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

31%chance

8617

OptionVotes

YES

1492

670

When/If Will Intelligence No Longer Need Humans [THE SINGULARITY]?

Jul 24, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13609

OptionProbability

2031, later, or never

2028 - 2030 (inclusive)

2026 - 2027 (inclusive)

Are naked singularities from spinning black holes physically possible?

Jan 2, 9:24 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

22.12%chance

16562

OptionVotes

YES

1027

836

if the singularity occurs, will humans be apportioned resources according to their pre-singularity wealth?

Mar 20, 7:11 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

13.62%chance

20467

OptionVotes

YES

490

101

Will the Singularity be marked with a new "baby boom"?

Jun 26, 10:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.64%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

103

Singularity News

Prediction markets for Singularity

Prediction markets for Singularity

Prediction markets for Singularity

How many years until the singularity? (Since December 2022)

By the end of 2026, John Wentworth still believes that "The Plan" has a better than 50/50 chance of working before the singularity.

Singularity by 2030?

AI Singularity (props)

Will Germany give up paper correspondence before the technological singularity happens?

Will there be a software-only singularity? (ACX, AI 2027 #3)

Will the trans community agree on a single, grammatically-singular, gender-neutral pronoun to use before 2035?

If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?

When/If Will Intelligence No Longer Need Humans [THE SINGULARITY]?

Are naked singularities from spinning black holes physically possible?

if the singularity occurs, will humans be apportioned resources according to their pre-singularity wealth?

Will the Singularity be marked with a new "baby boom"?

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