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Prediction markets for Singularity

How many years until the singularity? (Since December 2022)

Dec 7, 9:28 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

9.38%chance

516806

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2064

925

By the end of 2026, John Wentworth still believes that "The Plan" has a better than 50/50 chance of working before the singularity.

Dec 2, 5:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.91%chance

303435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1601

694

Singularity by 2030?

Apr 3, 1:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

15.82%chance

593148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

964

Will Germany give up paper correspondence before the technological singularity happens?

May 22, 10:42 AMOct 29, 9:59 PM

18.22%chance

182717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2119

472

When/If Will Intelligence No Longer Need Humans [THE SINGULARITY]?

Jul 24, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14650

OptionProbability

2031, later, or never

2028 - 2030 (inclusive)

2026 - 2027 (inclusive)

57

31

12

Will there be a software-only singularity? (ACX, AI 2027 #3)

Apr 8, 7:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.2%chance

10628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1357

737

Will the trans community agree on a single, grammatically-singular, gender-neutral pronoun to use before 2035?

Mar 29, 8:47 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

8.79%chance

21622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1289

943

If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?

Feb 2, 1:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

31%chance

8617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

670

Are naked singularities from spinning black holes physically possible?

Jan 2, 9:24 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

22.12%chance

16562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

836

if the singularity occurs, will humans be apportioned resources according to their pre-singularity wealth?

Mar 20, 7:11 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

13.62%chance

20467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

490

101

Lightlike singularity in black holes overthrown by ...?

Apr 4, 5:00 PMApr 11, 4:33 PM

7263

OptionProbability

End of 2029

End of 2028

End of 2027

End of 2026

33

21

8

5

Observational Evidence for Non-Singular Black Hole

Mar 13, 12:59 PMDec 31, 12:58 PM

7.05%chance

261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

96

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