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Prediction markets for Singularity

How many years until the singularity? (Since December 2022)

Dec 7, 9:28 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

22.31%chance

475525

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1121

901

By the end of 2026, John Wentworth still believes that "The Plan" has a better than 50/50 chance of working before the singularity.

Dec 2, 5:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.97%chance

303385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1551

711

Singularity by 2030?

Apr 3, 1:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

15.68%chance

593136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1388

962

Will Germany give up paper correspondence before the technological singularity happens?

May 22, 10:42 AMOct 29, 9:59 PM

17.59%chance

172707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2165

462

Will there be a software-only singularity? (ACX, AI 2027 #3)

Apr 8, 7:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.2%chance

10628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1357

737

Will the trans community agree on a single, grammatically-singular, gender-neutral pronoun to use before 2035?

Mar 29, 8:47 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

8.79%chance

21622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1289

943

Are naked singularities from spinning black holes physically possible?

Jan 2, 9:24 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.46%chance

15512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

786

if the singularity occurs, will humans be apportioned resources according to their pre-singularity wealth?

Mar 20, 7:11 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

13.62%chance

20467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

910

What will today's p(doom) be determined to be retrospectively by post singularity simulations?

Jul 9, 2:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.84%chance

5427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

273

37

If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?

Feb 2, 1:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.44%chance

6380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1380

725

Will "0. CAST: Corrigibility as Singular Target" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 2, 12:08 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

19%chance

254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

730

Will "Dialogue introduction to Singular Learning Theory" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jan 11, 7:14 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.74%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

74

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