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Long shot bets: How many of these 10 markets will resolve as expected?

Nov 15, 6:39 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

181850

OptionProbability

0-3

7-8

4-6

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Aug 8, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.39%chance

51565

OptionVotes

YES

5554

3487

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

YES

4652

3621

Will interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:54 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

14.86%chance

9344

OptionVotes

YES

491

223

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.89%chance

3230

OptionVotes

YES

4071

3711

Conditional on the following events, before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Aug 8, 6:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2230

OptionProbability

7. Before 2050, there is an AI catastrophe and the response IS insufficient

5. Before 2050, an AI system IS shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior

1. Before 2030, there IS an AI-caused administrative disempowerment

3. Between 2023-2030, deep learning revenue DOES doubles every 2 years

6. Before 2050, an AI system IS NOT shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior

2. Before 2030, there IS NOT an AI-caused administrative disempowerment

4. Between 2023-2030, deep learning revenue DOES NOT double every 2 years

8. Before 2050, there is an AI catastrophe and the response IS NOT insufficient

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

4007

3989

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

4047

3968

Arb bots for confident markets

Nov 18, 10:48 PM

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Prediction markets for Slight Risk

Long shot bets: How many of these 10 markets will resolve as expected?

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Will interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Conditional on the following events, before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Arb bots for confident markets

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