Slop News

Oxford Word of the Year 2026?

Dec 28, 6:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54449

OptionProbability

Other

ai slop

delegated self

model collapse

attention poverty

Will the "US x Iran permanent peace deal" Polymarket resolution result in a successful class action lawsuit?

Jun 20, 12:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.58%chance

103276

OptionVotes

YES

4178

1365

Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029?

Jun 25, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.8%chance

162780

OptionVotes

YES

2099

1104

Mr. Beat's 2026 Bingo Card

Jan 21, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16767

OptionProbability

Blue wave midterms

Cyber terrorism incident

AI slop completely takes over platforms

More assassinations

Obesity rates dramatically decline

Chain movie theaters close across the country

More governments embrace Bitcoin

Really bad hurricane season

AI bubble pops (but it's not that bad)

Americans become more united

Trump has (another?) stroke

A major merger of streaming services

Solar power doubles

Emo makes a comeback

YouTube surpasses Netflix in paid subscribers

Stagflation

Gen Alpha rebels against digital media

EV sales skyrocket

A new nonpartisan political movement starts

Robot restaurant trend

War with Venezuela

Everyone becomes a hipster

Twitter shuts down

Measles cases triple

Slopotopia: Have we reached peak AI slop in 2025?

Jan 15, 1:19 PMDec 31, 12:16 PM

17.7%chance

12427

OptionVotes

YES

216

Which companies go bust first?

Oct 7, 7:46 PMOct 14, 7:36 PM

4320

OptionProbability

AI SLOP

MANGO

Will Manifold ever ban trading bonus "slop" markets?

Jul 5, 11:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.19%chance

6226

OptionVotes

YES

122

Which of ThePrimeagen’s "Token Apocalypse" predictions will happen first?

Jun 11, 12:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4134

OptionProbability

A company explicitly shuts down or suffers a massive public post-mortem due to unmanageable AI-generated codebase bloat ("Slop Cannon" failure).

Open-source token donations/quotas become a standard feature or charity trend.

Individual token stipends introduced (with leftover token value paid out as a bonus).

"Pair prompting" or management negotiation of team token limits becomes a widespread tech meme/role.

None of these happen by June 2027.

"Token Poker" or token-based Agile story estimation becomes a documented team process.

In 2028, will I be just as suspicious towards music as I am towards photos? (In regards to AI slop.)

Jan 12, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

57.48%chance

670

OptionVotes

YES

116

Will Manifold reduce slop markets before 2027?

Jul 9, 1:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.64%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

125

Do Recurring Slope Lineae on Mars involve liquid water?

May 3, 9:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.33%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

101

Is the aperiodic slope of Jose Luis Ricon neural activity greater than -2.5?

Mar 29, 6:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.44%chance

OptionVotes

YES

105

Slop News

Prediction markets for Slop

Prediction markets for Slop

Prediction markets for Slop

Oxford Word of the Year 2026?

Will the "US x Iran permanent peace deal" Polymarket resolution result in a successful class action lawsuit?

Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029?

Mr. Beat's 2026 Bingo Card

Slopotopia: Have we reached peak AI slop in 2025?

Which companies go bust first?

Will Manifold ever ban trading bonus "slop" markets?

Which of ThePrimeagen’s "Token Apocalypse" predictions will happen first?

In 2028, will I be just as suspicious towards music as I am towards photos? (In regards to AI slop.)

Will Manifold reduce slop markets before 2027?

Do Recurring Slope Lineae on Mars involve liquid water?

Is the aperiodic slope of Jose Luis Ricon neural activity greater than -2.5?

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