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Prediction markets for Small Language Models

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.2%chance

17132633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14073

7523

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

When will a freely available LLM achieve IMO gold?

Aug 8, 7:26 PMAug 1, 9:34 PM

275201

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2030 or later

2028

2029

33

32

17

15

4

Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)

Jul 4, 9:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.72%chance

313209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

949

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Who will publicly release the first language model to be credibly accused of being responsible for 100 deaths?

Oct 5, 2:30 AMDec 13, 7:59 AM

21733

OptionProbability

Meta

Other

Mistral AI

Bytedance

OpenAI

Google DeepMind

EluetherAI

Tesla

Anthropic

Inflection AI

Databricks

Alibaba Group

17

16

15

11

9

9

6

6

4

4

3

2

Will a Large Language Model be deployed on a mission to land on a moon or planet by the end of 2030?

Dec 18, 3:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.96%chance

17440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

944

DeepMind's DiLoCo - how big of a blow to compute governance?

Jan 5, 11:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.34%chance

399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

49

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.76%chance

173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

91

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