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Prediction markets for SO

Will a human set foot on the moon whilst at least one human to have previously done so is still living?

Jul 5, 9:11 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

70.79%chance

927019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

1090

If Bee switches from Vim to VScode, will she kick herself for not having done so sooner?

Apr 25, 4:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.46%chance

503009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

719

Barron Trump gets a Girlfriend (or SO) by 2027

Mar 20, 6:04 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.25%chance

191600

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

703

Will there be 5+ "thought leaders" that became so due in part to trading success on prediction markets by end of 2026?

Jan 4, 4:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.14%chance

261072

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

777

Kai Trump gets a Boyfriend (or SO) by 2027

Mar 20, 6:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49%chance

9799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

980

AI Warning Signs: Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

Jan 18, 7:06 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

60%chance

9762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?

Mar 4, 1:28 AMMar 11, 4:59 AM

15.64%chance

22709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

970

How comfident do you think one should be that their crush doesn't like them back so that it's better not to confess ?

May 25, 7:46 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

38.62%chance

6573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1261

793

Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?

Mar 7, 1:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.81%chance

14535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1399

866

Will all characters in movie have an option to have a person's name "hover over" their name so that the face-blind can keep track of who is who, by 2027?

Feb 8, 7:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.57%chance

12261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

951

will leopards need the ozempic after feasting on so many of the faces by 2029?

Feb 16, 6:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.66%chance

4260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1143

875

Will "So You Think You've Awoken ChatGPT" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 11, 1:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

23.88%chance

5176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1096

569

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