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Prediction markets for SO

Will Twitter user @deprogrammingsocks transition or make plans do to so by EOY 2025?

Apr 1, 1:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97.56%chance

169964

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5466

110

Will a human set foot on the moon whilst at least one human to have previously done so is still living?

Jul 5, 9:11 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

52.42%chance

864876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1383

657

If Bee switches from Vim to VScode, will she kick herself for not having done so sooner?

Apr 25, 4:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.46%chance

503009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

719

Will python mojo be successful (>50% loved on SO survey) by end of 2025?

May 23, 10:22 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

10.44%chance

121581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2433

678

Barron Trump gets a Girlfriend (or SO) by 2027

Mar 20, 6:04 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

56.31%chance

181300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1135

881

Will there be 5+ "thought leaders" that became so due in part to trading success on prediction markets by end of 2026?

Jan 4, 4:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.53%chance

24972

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

677

AI Warning Signs: Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

Jan 18, 7:06 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

60%chance

9762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

How comfident do you think one should be that their crush doesn't like them back so that it's better not to confess ?

May 25, 7:46 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

38.62%chance

6573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1261

793

Kai Trump gets a Boyfriend (or SO) by 2027

Mar 20, 6:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.19%chance

5556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

938

Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?

Mar 7, 1:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.07%chance

12335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

914

will leopards need the ozempic after feasting on so many of the faces by 2029?

Feb 16, 6:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.67%chance

3110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

993

Will "Learnings from AI safety course so far" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 30, 2:56 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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