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Prediction markets for Social

Will "narcissistic, orgying tech nerds" solve social ills?

Oct 8, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.24%chance

9625869

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1161

899

Delayed Social Security payments to at least 100,000 people before December 31, 2025

Feb 1, 9:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.91%chance

12423197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13029

7951

Will Open AI launch a social media app by the end of 2026?

Mar 3, 12:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.79%chance

586279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2550

1629

Will Truth Social go bankrupt before 2026?

Apr 2, 3:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.57%chance

343997

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3934

128

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will we see an increased premium put on offline socialization by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:13 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

37%chance

642960

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1537

895

Will social media sites have warning labels before 2028?

Jun 19, 5:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

53.62%chance

221401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

930

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

Jun 28, 4:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.34%chance

9847

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

805

Will we see an increased premium put on siloed/private online socialization by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:10 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

63.64%chance

26690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

925

Will UK children face a social media curfew before 2029?

Jun 9, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.48%chance

6595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1585

631

Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?

Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.64%chance

8491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

930

Will ASI (if it exist and doesn’t wipe out humanity) care about people’s social relationships?

Jul 29, 12:07 AMJan 1, 1:04 AM

54.95%chance

5221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

905

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