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Prediction markets for Social

Will "narcissistic, orgying tech nerds" solve social ills?

Oct 8, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62%chance

10128209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

914

Australia reverses under-16 social media ban in 2026?

Dec 10, 3:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.58%chance

10516760

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6386

1018

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.42%chance

238056

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5412

3201

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will we see an increased premium put on offline socialization by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:13 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

39.56%chance

643010

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1456

945

Will a Sora-generated video receive over 1 billion total views across social media before July 2026?

Oct 4, 5:36 AMJun 29, 10:59 PM

33.16%chance

152901

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1420

704

Will social media sites have warning labels before 2028?

Jun 19, 5:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.01%chance

231451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

Jun 28, 4:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.43%chance

111066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1321

757

Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2027?

Jan 11, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.93%chance

17753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1442

875

Will we see an increased premium put on siloed/private online socialization by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:10 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

63.64%chance

26690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

925

Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?

Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.64%chance

8491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

930

Will ASI (if it exist and doesn’t wipe out humanity) care about people’s social relationships?

Jul 29, 12:07 AMJan 1, 1:04 AM

55.4%chance

6231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

937

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